Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Virtus Francavilla vs SS Nola 1925

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group H 2025/2026 Stadio Giovanni Paolo II, Francavilla Fontana
Our Tip

Match Events

50' Event
Bonavolonta A.
62' Event
Sosa F.
90' Event
Dell'Orfanello U.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group H 2025/2026 game between Virtus Francavilla and SS Nola 1925 finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Virtus Francavilla.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Virtus Francavilla
30%
Draws
19%
SS Nola 1925
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Virtus Francavilla

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Virtus Francavilla come out ahead of SS Nola 1925 on wins alone.
  • Model gives Virtus Francavilla a 51% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Virtus Francavilla Clean Sheet 68%
SS Nola 1925 Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Virtus Francavilla SS Nola 1925
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 14 9
Draws 8 7
Losses 8 14
Goals Scored 1.37 1.17
Goals Conceded 1.1 1.47
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 15, 2026 Serie D - Group H
Virtus Francavilla vs SS Nola 1925
2:1
Nov 2, 2025 Serie D - Group H
SS Nola 1925 vs Virtus Francavilla
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Virtus Francavilla Compare

Top Goalscorer Bonavolonta A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Sosa F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

SS Nola 1925 Compare

Top Goalscorer Dell'Orfanello U.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Virtus Francavilla 95 / 100
SS Nola 1925 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Virtus Francavilla SS Nola 1925

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Virtus Francavilla Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: SS Nola 1925 conceded in 80% of 30 recent games.

Historical meetings average 4.00 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Virtus Francavilla stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Virtus Francavilla's goal record stands at 67% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Virtus Francavilla VS SS Nola 1925
1.25 Goals Scored 0.5
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.5
75% Over 1.5 50%
63% Over 2.5 38%
50% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Virtus Francavilla

(Home)
20 Sept
Martina Calcio
1 : 2
Virtus Francavilla
16 Sept
Virtus Francavilla
2 : 1
Brindisi
13 Sept
Melfi
0 : 1
Virtus Francavilla
06 Sept
Virtus Francavilla
3 : 1
Palmese 1914
03 May
Virtus Francavilla
2 : 2
Sarnese
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SS Nola 1925

(Away)
10 May
SS Nola 1925
1 : 1
Heraclea
03 May
SS Nola 1925
2 : 1
Martina Calcio
26 Apr
Paganese
5 : 0
SS Nola 1925
19 Apr
SS Nola 1925
0 : 0
Ferrandina
12 Apr
Manfredonia
1 : 0
SS Nola 1925
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Barletta 34 20 10 4 54:20 70
2 Martina Calcio 34 18 8 8 47:30 62
3 Citta di Fasano 34 18 8 8 51:35 62
4 Paganese 34 17 7 10 36:32 58
5 A.C.D. Nardo 34 14 13 7 40:27 55
6 Gravina 34 16 7 11 50:40 55
7 Afragolese 34 13 10 11 45:46 49
8 Fidelis Andria 34 13 9 12 35:28 48
9 Virtus Francavilla 34 12 12 10 45:40 48
10 Real Normanna 34 10 13 11 27:26 43
11 Francavilla 34 11 10 13 39:38 43
12 Manfredonia 34 11 10 13 34:39 43
13 Sarnese 34 9 14 11 51:49 41
14 SS Nola 1925 34 11 8 15 42:50 41
15 Heraclea 34 10 8 16 31:39 38
16 Pompei 34 9 7 18 26:38 34
17 Ferrandina 34 7 9 18 21:43 30
18 Acerrana 34 3 5 26 20:74 14
Promotion - Serie D - Group H 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group H 2025/2026 (Play Out)