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Vitoria Guimaraes B vs Amarante FC Prediction & H2H Stats

Portugal Portugal

Liga 3 2025/2026 Academia Vitoria SC, Guimarães
Our Tip

Match Events

6'
Sub
Carrera R. In: Bruma
Out: Carrera R.
9' Event
Rui Pedro
19' Event
Filipe J.

AI Match Summary

The Liga 3 2025/2026 game between Vitoria Guimaraes B and Amarante FC finished 1-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Amarante FC.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

25%
Vitoria Guimaraes B
35%
Draws
40%
Amarante FC
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Amarante FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Amarante FC carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Vitoria Guimaraes B's way, sitting at 42%.
  • Regular Liga 3 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Vitoria Guimaraes B Clean Sheet 20%
Amarante FC Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Vitoria Guimaraes B Amarante FC
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 13 14
Draws 8 8
Losses 9 7
Goals Scored 1.23 1.28
Goals Conceded 1.07 0.97
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 16, 2026 Liga 3
Vitoria Guimaraes B vs Amarante FC
1:3
Mar 22, 2026 Liga 3
Amarante FC vs Vitoria Guimaraes B
2:1
Nov 29, 2025 Liga 3
Amarante FC vs Vitoria Guimaraes B
1:2
Aug 17, 2025 Liga 3
Vitoria Guimaraes B vs Amarante FC
2:3
Jan 28, 2024 Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
Vitoria Guimaraes B vs Amarante FC
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Vitoria Guimaraes B Compare

Top Goalscorer Tepe M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Amarante FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Rui Pedro
1 Goals
Assists Leader Filipe J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Vitoria Guimaraes B 42 / 100
Amarante FC 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Vitoria Guimaraes B Amarante FC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Vitoria Guimaraes B scored in 80% of their last 30 games.

Games between these two average 3.40 goals.

Defensive concern: Amarante FC conceded in 62% of 29 recent games.

Vitoria Guimaraes B went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Vitoria Guimaraes B VS Amarante FC
1.25 Goals Scored 0.75
1.25 Goals Conceded 1
75% Over 1.5 50%
38% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Vitoria Guimaraes B

(Home)
12 Sept
AD Marco 09
1 : 0
Vitoria Guimaraes B
05 Sept
Vitoria Guimaraes B
0 : 0
Trofense
21 Aug
AD Fafe
1 : 1
Vitoria Guimaraes B
15 Aug
Vitoria Guimaraes B
2 : 0
Leca
07 Aug
Paredes
3 : 1
Vitoria Guimaraes B
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Amarante FC

(Away)
20 Sept
Ponte da Barca
0 : 2
Amarante FC
13 Sept
Amarante FC
2 : 2
Leiria
06 Sept
Leixoes
3 : 1
Amarante FC
30 Aug
Amarante FC
1 : 0
Benfica B
22 Aug
Vizela
0 : 0
Amarante FC
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Amarante FC 14 9 4 1 22:11 31
2 Academica 14 8 4 2 23:13 28
3 CF Os Belenenses 14 7 5 2 25:16 26
4 Mafra 14 5 2 7 17:24 17
5 Vitoria Guimaraes B 14 4 5 5 16:17 17
6 Varzim 14 4 2 8 13:19 14
7 Santarem 14 2 4 8 13:20 10
8 Trofense 14 2 4 8 7:16 10
Promotion - Liga Portugal 2 (Main)
Promotion - Liga Portugal 2 2025/2026 (Relegation)