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Vitoria Guimaraes vs Penafiel - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

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Club Friendly
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Vitoria Guimaraes in this Club Friendly matchup, with the score ending 5-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Vitoria Guimaraes.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Vitoria Guimaraes
30%
Draws
47%
Penafiel
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Penafiel

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Vitoria Guimaraes haven't matched Penafiel's recent run of results.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.8%
Vitoria Guimaraes Clean Sheet 15%
Penafiel Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Vitoria Guimaraes Penafiel
Matches Played 25 29
Wins 10 11
Draws 5 7
Losses 10 11
Goals Scored 1.36 1.31
Goals Conceded 1.12 1.31
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 18, 2026 Club Friendly
Vitoria Guimaraes vs Penafiel
5:0
Jan 11, 2024 Taça de Portugal
Vitoria Guimaraes vs Penafiel
1:0
Jul 7, 2018 Club Friendly
Vitoria Guimaraes vs Penafiel
3:1
Oct 18, 2015 Taça de Portugal
Penafiel vs Vitoria Guimaraes
2:0
Jan 31, 2015 Liga Portugal
Penafiel vs Vitoria Guimaraes
1:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Vitoria Guimaraes 31 / 100
Penafiel 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Vitoria Guimaraes Penafiel

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Penafiel Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Vitoria Guimaraes scored in 72% of their last 25 outings.

Penafiel let in goals in 69% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

Vitoria Guimaraes has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Vitoria Guimaraes VS Penafiel
0.75 Goals Scored 2.13
1 Goals Conceded 1
38% Over 1.5 88%
25% Over 2.5 75%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Vitoria Guimaraes

(Home)
25 Sept
Chaves
0 : 1
Vitoria Guimaraes
20 Sept
Vitoria Guimaraes
1 : 1
Moreirense
12 Sept
Academico Viseu
2 : 1
Vitoria Guimaraes
06 Sept
Vitoria Guimaraes
0 : 0
Casa Pia
31 Aug
Braga
1 : 0
Vitoria Guimaraes
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Penafiel

(Away)
09 Oct
Penafiel
1 : 2
AFS
25 Sept
Penafiel
2 : 2
Dep. A Coruna
19 Sept
Oliveirense
1 : 2
Penafiel
12 Sept
FC Felgueiras
1 : 2
Penafiel
05 Sept
Penafiel
4 : 1
Academica
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