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Vitoria Guimaraes vs Penafiel

World World

Club Friendly
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Vitoria Guimaraes in this Club Friendly matchup, with the score ending 5-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Vitoria Guimaraes.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Vitoria Guimaraes
6%
Draws
4%
Penafiel
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Vitoria Guimaraes

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Penafiel haven't matched Vitoria Guimaraes's recent run of results.
  • Vitoria Guimaraes are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.4%
Vitoria Guimaraes Clean Sheet 20%
Penafiel Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Vitoria Guimaraes Penafiel
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 15 9
Draws 3 7
Losses 11 13
Goals Scored 1.5 1.13
Goals Conceded 1.13 1.75
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 1.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 18, 2026 Club Friendly
Vitoria Guimaraes vs Penafiel
5:0
Jan 11, 2024 Taça de Portugal
Vitoria Guimaraes vs Penafiel
1:0
Jul 7, 2018 Club Friendly
Vitoria Guimaraes vs Penafiel
3:1
Oct 18, 2015 Taça de Portugal
Penafiel vs Vitoria Guimaraes
2:0
Jan 31, 2015 Liga Portugal
Penafiel vs Vitoria Guimaraes
1:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Vitoria Guimaraes 85 / 100
Penafiel 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Vitoria Guimaraes Penafiel

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick GUI Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Vitoria Guimaraes scored in 79% of their last 29 outings.

Penafiel let in goals in 66% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

Vitoria Guimaraes has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Vitoria Guimaraes VS Penafiel
1.5 Goals Scored 1.13
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.75
63% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Vitoria Guimaraes

(Home)
18 Jul
Vitoria Guimaraes
2 : 0
Academica
18 Jul
Vitoria Guimaraes
5 : 0
Penafiel
11 Jul
Vitoria Guimaraes
3 : 1
FC Felgueiras
16 May
Nacional
2 : 0
Vitoria Guimaraes
11 May
Vitoria Guimaraes
0 : 1
Casa Pia
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Penafiel

(Away)
18 Jul
Famalicao
0 : 0
Penafiel
18 Jul
Vitoria Guimaraes
5 : 0
Penafiel
17 May
Pacos Ferreira
2 : 1
Penafiel
09 May
Penafiel
1 : 0
Maritimo
04 May
Torreense
3 : 2
Penafiel
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