Sport Picks

Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C

Mortagua FC

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Vitoria Sernache play Mortagua FC in the Campeonato de Portugal - Group C. It looks like a close match. Recently, Vitoria Sernache averaged 1.23 goals scored and 0.52 conceded. Mortagua FC averaged 0.93 goals scored and 1.03 conceded. In past meetings, Vitoria Sernache won 3, Mortagua FC won 0, and they drew 2. Their last match on Apr 12, 2026 ended 1:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.01 for Vitoria Sernache and 0.66 for Mortagua FC. This points to a Vitoria Sernache double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

41%

Vitoria Sernache

30%

Draws

29%

Mortagua FC

Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Vitoria Sernache

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

74% / Medium Confidence

Vitoria Sernache picked up more points recently compared to Mortagua FC.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.01 vs 0.66 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 53%

Over 2.5 Goals 29%

Over 3.5 Goals 17%

Over 4.5 Goals 9%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32%

Vitoria Sernache Clean Sheet 28%

Mortagua FC Clean Sheet 15%

First Half Goal 48%

Second Half Goal 50%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Vitoria Sernache	Mortagua FC
Matches Played	31	30
Wins	17	14
Draws	10	6
Losses	4	10
Goals Scored	1.23	0.93
Goals Conceded	0.52	1.03
Expected Goals (xG)	0.88	0.57
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	0.75	1.14

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 12, 2026 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C

Vitoria Sernache vs Mortagua FC

Possession: 43% - 57% Cards: 3 - 4

1:0

Dec 14, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C

Mortagua FC vs Vitoria Sernache

Possession: 44% - 55% Cards: 1 - 4

0:1

Jan 7, 2024 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C

Vitoria Sernache vs Mortagua FC

Possession: 46% - 55% Cards: 4 - 1

1:1

Aug 20, 2023 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C

Mortagua FC vs Vitoria Sernache

Possession: 44% - 58% Cards: 3 - 2

1:1

Apr 10, 2021 Campeonato de Portugal - Group E

Vitoria Sernache vs Mortagua FC

Possession: 42% - 45% Cards: 2 - 2

2:0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Vitoria Sernache 43 / 100

Mortagua FC 29 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Vitoria Sernache Mortagua FC

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Vitoria Sernache or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +24.2%

3.03

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +26.1%

4.35

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Vitoria Sernache attacking → ← attacking Mortagua FC

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Vitoria Sernache scored in 68% of their last 31 games.

Mortagua FC let in goals in 63% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 1.60 goals.

Vitoria Sernache went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Mortagua FC lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

61 Points in last 5 48

0.88 Goals expected (xG) 0.57

0.75 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.14

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Vitoria Sernache	26	16	7	3	33:12	55
2	Oliveira Hospital	26	14	8	4	39:13	50
3	Naval 1893	26	14	6	6	36:23	48
4	SB Castelo Branco	26	14	4	8	43:26	46
5	Uniao Da Serra	26	12	8	6	38:27	44
6	Mortagua FC	26	11	6	9	23:26	39
7	Os Marialvas	26	10	6	10	33:28	36
8	Fatima	26	8	8	10	27:29	32
9	Lajense	26	8	8	10	37:37	32
10	GD Peniche	26	8	6	12	34:43	30
11	Samora Correia	26	8	5	13	27:35	29
12	Marinhense	26	5	9	12	20:38	24
13	Electrico FC	26	5	4	17	33:62	19
14	SC Lusitania	26	4	5	17	24:48	17