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Vitoria Setubal vs Real SC - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group D Estádio do Bonfim, Setúbal
Sun, Oct 11, 2026
VS
02:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Vitoria Setubal host Real SC in the Campeonato de Portugal - Group D. History leans heavily one way in this fixture. Recent numbers: Vitoria Setubal at 1.66 goals for, 1.09 against; Real SC at 1.07 for, 1.69 against. Head-to-head, Vitoria Setubal have won 5 to Real SC's 0, with 0 draws. They last met on Jan 14, 2024, ending 2:0. The numbers (1.44 xG vs 1.38) point toward Vitoria Setubal. The model's pick is Home (1) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%
Vitoria Setubal
35%
Draws
30%
Real SC
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Vitoria Setubal have won more games recently than Real SC.
  • 35% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Campeonato de Portugal - Group D form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Vitoria Setubal have taken 5 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
Vitoria Setubal Clean Sheet 17%
Real SC Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Vitoria Setubal Real SC
Matches Played 32 29
Wins 18 5
Draws 5 8
Losses 9 16
Goals Scored 1.66 1.07
Goals Conceded 1.09 1.69
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 14, 2024 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Vitoria Setubal vs Real SC
2:0
Aug 27, 2023 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Real SC vs Vitoria Setubal
2:3
May 1, 2023 Liga 3
Real SC vs Vitoria Setubal
1:2
Apr 7, 2023 Liga 3
Vitoria Setubal vs Real SC
1:0
Feb 26, 2023 Liga 3
Real SC vs Vitoria Setubal
1:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Vitoria Setubal 30 / 100
Real SC 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Vitoria Setubal Real SC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Vitoria Setubal Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Vitoria Setubal scored in 88% of their last 32 games.

Real SC let in goals in 90% of their last 29 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.

Vitoria Setubal went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Vitoria Setubal VS Real SC
1.38 Goals Scored 1.25
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.5
75% Over 1.5 50%
75% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Vitoria Setubal

(Home)
20 Sept
Alcains
0 : 2
Vitoria Setubal
13 Sept
Vitoria Setubal
2 : 2
Juv. Evora
06 Sept
Lajense
0 : 1
Vitoria Setubal
23 Aug
Vitoria Setubal
1 : 3
Amora
16 Aug
Serpa
4 : 2
Vitoria Setubal
Page 1 of 7

Real SC

(Away)
04 Oct
Santa Clara B
1 : 1
Real SC
26 Sept
Real SC
1 : 1
Serpa
18 Sept
Real SC
1 : 4
Academica
13 Sept
Real SC
5 : 5
Lajense
06 Sept
Amora
0 : 1
Real SC
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sintrense 4 3 1 0 11:3 10
2 Imortal 4 2 1 1 7:3 7
3 Amora 4 2 1 1 5:3 7
4 Serpa 4 1 3 0 6:4 6
5 Real SC 4 1 3 0 8:7 6
6 Juv. Evora 4 1 2 1 6:7 5
7 Lagoa 4 1 2 1 3:3 5
8 GD Alcochetense 4 1 2 1 7:6 5
9 Vitoria Setubal 4 1 1 2 6:9 4
10 Portel 4 0 4 0 6:6 4
11 Lajense 4 1 1 2 7:7 4
12 1º Dezembro 3 0 2 1 2:7 2
13 Aljustrelense 4 0 2 2 2:8 2
14 Santa Clara B 3 0 1 2 3:6 1
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A (Promotion Group)
Relegation - Campeonato de Portugal - Relegation Group 2026/2027 (Main)