Sport Picks

Italy

Serie D - Group E

Montevarchi

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro play Montevarchi in the Serie D - Group E. It looks like a close match. Recently, Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro averaged 0.53 goals scored and 1.37 conceded. Montevarchi averaged 0.7 goals scored and 0.77 conceded. In past meetings, Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro won 0, Montevarchi won 2, and they drew 3. Their last match on Apr 2, 2026 ended 0:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.56 for Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro and 1.25 for Montevarchi. This points to a Montevarchi double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

18%

Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro

35%

Draws

47%

Montevarchi

Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Montevarchi

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

83% / High Confidence

Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro picked up more points recently compared to Montevarchi.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.56 vs 1.25 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 54%

Over 2.5 Goals 18%

Over 3.5 Goals 11%

Over 4.5 Goals 5%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%

Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro Clean Sheet 19%

Montevarchi Clean Sheet 22%

First Half Goal 49%

Second Half Goal 51%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro	Montevarchi
Matches Played	30	30
Wins	1	9
Draws	14	14
Losses	15	7
Goals Scored	0.53	0.7
Goals Conceded	1.37	0.77
Expected Goals (xG)	0.75	1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.50	0.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 2, 2026 Serie D - Group E

Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro vs Montevarchi

Possession: 55% - 41% Cards: 4 - 2

0:0

Nov 23, 2025 Serie D - Group E

Montevarchi vs Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro

Possession: 54% - 48% Cards: 1 - 2

1:1

Apr 28, 2024 Serie D - Group E

Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro vs Montevarchi

Possession: 56% - 48% Cards: 1 - 1

0:1

Dec 16, 2023 Serie D - Group E

Montevarchi vs Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro

Possession: 60% - 56% Cards: 4 - 3

1:1

Apr 15, 2018 Serie D - Group D

Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro vs Montevarchi

Possession: 48% - 48% Cards: 4 - 2

0:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro 20 / 100

Montevarchi 47 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro Montevarchi

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Montevarchi or Draw (X2)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +80%

10.00

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +49.9%

8.33

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro attacking → ← attacking Montevarchi

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro scored in 43% of their last 30 games.

Montevarchi let in goals in 47% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 1.20 goals.

Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Montevarchi lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

17 Points in last 5 41

0.75 Goals expected (xG) 1.00

1.50 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.38

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Grosseto	34	22	6	6	58:25	72
2	Tau	34	18	9	7	53:33	63
3	Prato	34	20	5	9	49:29	63
4	Siena	34	17	9	8	57:35	60
5	Seravezza Pozzi	34	15	12	7	42:29	57
6	Terranuova Traiana	34	14	9	11	28:30	51
7	Foligno	34	14	9	11	45:37	51
8	Scandicci	34	11	15	8	39:32	48
9	Montevarchi	34	10	16	8	28:32	46
10	Sporting Trestina	34	10	12	12	40:42	42
11	San Donato Tavarnelle	34	9	13	12	30:35	40
12	Ghiviborgo	34	10	10	14	42:44	40
13	Orvietana	34	9	11	14	33:37	38
14	Follonica Gavorrano	34	9	10	15	36:49	37
15	Camaiore Calcio	34	9	8	17	41:54	35
16	Poggibonsi	34	7	10	17	29:46	31
17	Cannara	34	6	8	20	24:59	26
18	Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro	34	2	16	16	20:46	22