Sport Picks

Finland

Veikkausliiga Lemonsoft Stadion, Vaasa

VPS

2 - 1

HJK

Our Tip

Match Events

Lappalainen L.

Assist: Ring A.

24'

Okereke E.

46'

Sub

Pukki T. In: Borchers M.

Out: Pukki T.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

VPS in this Veikkausliiga matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored VPS.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%

VPS

40%

Draws

29%

HJK

Draw rate projection: 40% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence

HJK have won more games recently than VPS.
Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 40%.
This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%

Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 70%

Over 4.5 Goals 32%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%

VPS Clean Sheet 10%

HJK Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	VPS	HJK
Matches Played	29	28
Wins	14	16
Draws	7	4
Losses	8	8
Goals Scored	2.13	2.88
Goals Conceded	0.88	1.75
Expected Goals (xG)	2.13	2.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	0.88	1.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 18, 2026 Veikkausliiga

HJK vs VPS

2:1

May 22, 2026 Veikkausliiga

VPS vs HJK

2:1

Jul 5, 2025 Veikkausliiga

VPS vs HJK

0:2

Apr 26, 2025 Veikkausliiga

HJK vs VPS

3:1

Sep 20, 2024 Veikkausliiga

VPS vs HJK

1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

VPS Compare

Top Goalscorer Smyth L.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.64

Avg xA / game 1.06

HJK Compare

Top Goalscorer Lappalainen L.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 2.62

Avg xA / game 1.6

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

VPS 30 / 100

HJK 28 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

VPS HJK

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes

Correct Score 2:2

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

VPS scored in 79% of their last 29 games.

Defensive concern: HJK conceded in 68% of 28 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.80 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: VPS stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

VPS VS HJK

2.13 Goals Scored 2.88

0.88 Goals Conceded 1.75

75% Over 1.5 100%

50% Over 2.5 88%

38% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

VPS

(Home)

18 Jul

HJK

2 : 1

VPS

10 Jul

VPS

1 : 0

SJK

04 Jul

VPS

4 : 0

Mariehamn

30 Jun

VPS

2 : 3

Inter Turku

27 Jun

Gnistan

1 : 1

VPS

Page 1 of 6

HJK

(Away)

23 Jul

HJK

5 : 0

Coleraine

18 Jul

HJK

2 : 1

VPS

11 Jul

Lahti

2 : 0

HJK

01 Jul

HJK

2 : 1

Ilves

27 Jun

HJK

0 : 4

KuPS

Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Scroll horizontally →

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	KuPS	16	9	6	1	29:15	33
2	Inter Turku	16	8	7	1	23:12	31
3	VPS	16	7	6	3	23:13	27
4	AC Oulu	16	8	2	6	20:20	26
5	HJK	16	7	4	5	27:20	25
6	Gnistan	16	7	4	5	25:20	25
7	Lahti	16	6	4	6	20:15	22
8	TPS	16	6	4	6	20:19	22
9	Ilves	16	5	4	7	28:30	19
10	SJK	16	3	5	8	18:25	14
11	Jaro	16	2	6	8	15:32	12
12	Mariehamn	16	0	4	12	8:35	4

Promotion - Veikkausliiga (Championship Group)

Relegation - Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group)