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Várzea Grande EC vs Sorriso EC

Brazil Brazil

Matogrossense 2 2025
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

This match ends 2-1, with Várzea Grande EC advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

59%
Várzea Grande EC
15%
Draws
26%
Sorriso EC
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Várzea Grande EC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

59% / Medium Confidence
  • Várzea Grande EC carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 59% — that's where the model lands on Várzea Grande EC taking it.
  • Várzea Grande EC have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Várzea Grande EC, who have won 1 of the last 2 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.8%
Várzea Grande EC Clean Sheet 14%
Sorriso EC Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Várzea Grande EC Sorriso EC
Matches Played 28 13
Wins 8 6
Draws 6 2
Losses 14 5
Goals Scored 1.21 2.23
Goals Conceded 1.71 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 19, 2025 Matogrossense 2
Sorriso EC vs Várzea Grande EC
1:1
Jul 12, 2025 Matogrossense 2
Várzea Grande EC vs Sorriso EC
2:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Várzea Grande EC 84 / 100
Sorriso EC 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Várzea Grande EC Sorriso EC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Várzea Grande EC Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Várzea Grande EC scored in 75% of their last 28 outings.

Sorriso EC's defensive record shows goals conceded in 69% of 13 matches.

H2H data points to 2.50 goals as a typical output.

Várzea Grande EC went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Várzea Grande EC VS Sorriso EC
0.88 Goals Scored 1.88
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.5
63% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Várzea Grande EC

(Home)
23 Sept
Uirapuru
1 : 4
Várzea Grande EC
20 Sept
Várzea Grande EC
1 : 3
Uniao Rondonopolis
13 Sept
Santa Cruz MT
1 : 2
Várzea Grande EC
08 Feb
Cuiaba
0 : 1
Várzea Grande EC
05 Feb
Várzea Grande EC
1 : 3
Nova Mutum EC
Page 1 of 6

Sorriso EC

(Away)
17 Sept
Cuiaba
4 : 0
Sorriso EC
12 Sept
Sorriso EC
1 : 2
Cacerense
21 May
Sorriso EC
2 : 3
Cacerense
17 May
Santa Cruz MT
1 : 1
Sorriso EC
01 May
Sorriso EC
9 : 0
Campo Novo
Page 1 of 3

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Sorriso EC 2
Várzea Grande EC 3
Cacerense 0
Chapada 6
Final
Várzea Grande EC 1
Chapada 2