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Waitakere City vs Caversham

New Zealand New Zealand

Chatham Cup 2016
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

This match ends 3-1, with Waitakere City advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Waitakere City
15%
Draws
34%
Caversham
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Waitakere City

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Caversham come out ahead of Waitakere City on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Waitakere City's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Caversham arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Waitakere City, who have won 1 of the last 2 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 81%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 81%
Over 3.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 39%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77%
Waitakere City Clean Sheet 13%
Caversham Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Waitakere City Caversham
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 9 13
Draws 2 5
Losses 19 13
Goals Scored 1.8 1.48
Goals Conceded 2.13 1.58
Expected Goals (xG) 2.69 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 6, 2016 Chatham Cup
Waitakere City vs Caversham
3:1
Sep 13, 2002 Football Championship
Caversham vs Waitakere City
3:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Waitakere City 84 / 100
Caversham 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Waitakere City Caversham

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Waitakere City Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 4.50 goals.

Waitakere City's goal record stands at 77% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Caversham has conceded goals in 74% of their last 31 outings.

Waitakere City went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Waitakere City VS Caversham
3.63 Goals Scored 2
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.75
100% Over 1.5 75%
100% Over 2.5 75%
100% Over 3.5 75%

Recent Form & Match History

Waitakere City

(Home)
06 Jul
Waitakere City
1 : 3
Melville
11 Sept
Birkenhead
3 : 2
Waitakere City
28 Aug
Waitakere City
6 : 1
Three Kings
06 Aug
Waitakere City
3 : 1
Caversham
16 Jul
Waitakere City
3 : 1
Waitemata FC
Page 1 of 6

Caversham

(Away)
03 Aug
Caversham
1 : 2
Bay Olympic
07 Jul
Roslyn Wakari
2 : 3
Caversham
15 Jul
Cashmere Technical
2 : 0
Caversham
06 Aug
Waitakere City
3 : 1
Caversham
16 Jul
Queenstown Rovers
0 : 1
Caversham
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Forrest Hill 3
Bay Olympic 0
East Coast 3
Birkenhead 5
Universities of Canterbury 0
Cashmere Technical 3
Wairarapa United 2
Miramar 4
Waitakere City 3
Waitemata FC 1
Queenstown Rovers 0
Caversham 1
Te Atatu FC 1
Three Kings 2
Palmerston North Marist 2
North Wellington 3
Quarter-finals
Forrest Hill 0
Birkenhead 3
Cashmere Technical 2
Miramar 4
Waitakere City 3
Caversham 1
Three Kings 6
North Wellington 1
Semi-finals
Birkenhead 3
Miramar 1
Waitakere City 6
Three Kings 1
Final
Birkenhead 3
Waitakere City 2