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Waitakere United vs Eastern Suburbs

New Zealand New Zealand

Football Championship Fred Taylor Park, Auckland
Our Tip

Match Events

25' Event
Duncan J.
28' Event
Van Den Hoven L.
36' Event
Greive A.

AI Match Summary

Waitakere United in this Football Championship matchup, with the score ending 4-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Waitakere United.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

53%
Waitakere United
15%
Draws
32%
Eastern Suburbs
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Waitakere United

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

53% / Medium Confidence
  • Eastern Suburbs have won more games recently than Waitakere United.
  • 53% — that's where the model lands on Waitakere United taking it.
  • European nights carry their own weight — this Football Championship fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.6%
Waitakere United Clean Sheet 10%
Eastern Suburbs Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Waitakere United Eastern Suburbs
Matches Played 28 34
Wins 10 13
Draws 9 7
Losses 9 14
Goals Scored 2.07 1.56
Goals Conceded 2.04 1.41
Expected Goals (xG) 1.23 1.99
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 6, 2021 Football Championship
Waitakere United vs Eastern Suburbs
4:0
Dec 6, 2020 Football Championship
Eastern Suburbs vs Waitakere United
2:2
Feb 8, 2020 Football Championship
Waitakere United vs Eastern Suburbs
1:0
Nov 24, 2019 Football Championship
Eastern Suburbs vs Waitakere United
1:1
Mar 2, 2019 Football Championship
Eastern Suburbs vs Waitakere United
5:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Waitakere United Compare

Top Goalscorer Duncan J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Van Den Hoven L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.95
Avg xA / game 0.61

Eastern Suburbs Compare

Avg xG / game 1.81
Avg xA / game 1.11

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Waitakere United 74 / 100
Eastern Suburbs 11 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Waitakere United Eastern Suburbs

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Waitakere United Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Waitakere United found the back of the net in 93% of recent matches (28 games).

Games between these two average 3.40 goals.

Eastern Suburbs let in goals in 79% of their last 34 matches.

Solid form: Waitakere United remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

- VS Eastern Suburbs
0 Goals Scored 2.88
0 Goals Conceded 1.25
0% Over 1.5 100%
0% Over 2.5 75%
0% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Waitakere United

(Home)
27 Feb
Auckland City
2 : 2
Waitakere United
21 Feb
Waitakere United
2 : 0
Hawke s Bay
14 Feb
Hamilton
3 : 2
Waitakere United
06 Feb
Waitakere United
4 : 0
Eastern Suburbs
30 Jan
Team Wellington
3 : 4
Waitakere United
Page 1 of 6

Eastern Suburbs

(Away)
16 Aug
Eastern Suburbs
1 : 2
Wellington Olympic
26 Jul
Fencibles United AFC
0 : 2
Eastern Suburbs
05 Jul
Manukau United
1 : 3
Eastern Suburbs
24 Nov
Eastern Suburbs
0 : 2
Western Suburbs
16 Nov
Cashmere Technical
1 : 0
Eastern Suburbs
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Auckland City 14 8 4 2 27:13 28
2 Team Wellington 14 7 5 2 35:21 26
3 Hamilton 14 5 5 4 23:21 20
4 Eastern Suburbs 14 5 4 5 25:23 19
5 Waitakere United 14 4 6 4 28:26 18
6 Canterbury 14 5 3 6 21:24 18
7 Hawke s Bay 14 4 1 9 17:29 13
8 Wellington Phoenix 2 14 2 4 8 18:37 10
Promotion - Football Championship (Play Offs)