Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Waitakere United vs Southern United

New Zealand New Zealand

Football Championship 2019/2020 Fred Taylor Park, Auckland
Our Tip

Match Events

28' Event
Coughlan G.
31' Event
McKenzie C.
38' Event
Stevens J.

AI Match Summary

The Football Championship 2019/2020 game between Waitakere United and Southern United finished 2-5, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Southern United.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Waitakere United
20%
Draws
33%
Southern United
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Waitakere United

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Waitakere United carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Waitakere United's way, sitting at 70%.
  • Continental football usually means sharper preparation from both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Southern United here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 79.8%
Waitakere United Clean Sheet 20%
Southern United Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Waitakere United Southern United
Matches Played 31 28
Wins 11 8
Draws 9 8
Losses 11 12
Goals Scored 2 1.46
Goals Conceded 2 2.18
Expected Goals (xG) 1.10 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 15, 2020 Football Championship
Southern United vs Waitakere United
2:1
Nov 30, 2019 Football Championship
Waitakere United vs Southern United
2:5
Feb 3, 2019 Football Championship
Southern United vs Waitakere United
2:1
Nov 18, 2018 Football Championship
Waitakere United vs Southern United
1:1
Jan 28, 2018 Football Championship
Southern United vs Waitakere United
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Waitakere United Compare

Top Goalscorer Duncan J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.55

Southern United Compare

Top Goalscorer Stevens J.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Coughlan G.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Waitakere United 67 / 100
Southern United 15 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Waitakere United Southern United

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Waitakere United Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Waitakere United found the back of the net in 94% of recent matches (31 games).

Southern United has conceded goals in 89% of their last 28 outings.

H2H data points to 3.20 goals as a typical output.

Waitakere United went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Waitakere United VS Southern United
1.88 Goals Scored 0
1.38 Goals Conceded 0.33
75% Over 1.5 0%
63% Over 2.5 0%
63% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Waitakere United

(Home)
27 Feb
Auckland City
2 : 2
Waitakere United
21 Feb
Waitakere United
2 : 0
Hawke s Bay
14 Feb
Hamilton
3 : 2
Waitakere United
06 Feb
Waitakere United
4 : 0
Eastern Suburbs
30 Jan
Team Wellington
3 : 4
Waitakere United
Page 1 of 7

Southern United

(Away)
14 Mar
Southern United
0 : 1
Team Wellington
29 Feb
Hawke s Bay
3 : 4
Southern United
15 Feb
Southern United
2 : 1
Waitakere United
08 Feb
Hamilton
1 : 1
Southern United
01 Feb
Eastern Suburbs
6 : 0
Southern United
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Auckland City 16 11 4 1 42:15 37
2 Team Wellington 16 10 4 2 36:15 34
3 Waitakere United 16 8 3 5 35:32 27
4 Eastern Suburbs 16 6 4 6 33:26 22
5 Tasman United 16 6 2 8 27:26 20
6 Hamilton 16 6 2 8 24:39 20
7 Southern United 16 5 4 7 25:38 19
8 Wellington Phoenix 2 16 4 6 6 30:32 18
9 Hawke s Bay 16 4 3 9 32:44 15
10 Canterbury 16 2 4 10 19:36 10
Promotion - Football Championship 2019/2020 (Play Offs)