Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Wales U21 vs Denmark U21

Europe Europe

Euro U21 2025 Rodney Parade, Newport
Our Tip

Match Events

5' Event
Bech T.
Assist: Sorensen O.
34'
Beck O.
46'
Sub
Cotterill J. In: Colwill R.
Out: Cotterill J.

AI Match Summary

The Euro U21 2025 game between Wales U21 and Denmark U21 finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Denmark U21.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

4%
Wales U21
6%
Draws
90%
Denmark U21
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Denmark U21

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Denmark U21's 2.38 goals per match outpaces what Wales U21 have produced (1).
  • Denmark U21 are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Continental football usually means sharper preparation from both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Denmark U21 here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Wales U21 Clean Sheet 10%
Denmark U21 Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Wales U21 Denmark U21
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 12 12
Draws 4 9
Losses 14 9
Goals Scored 1 2.38
Goals Conceded 2.63 1.88
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 2.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.63 1.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 31, 2026 Euro U21
Denmark U21 vs Wales U21
4:0
Sep 8, 2025 Euro U21
Wales U21 vs Denmark U21
2:6
Nov 20, 2023 Euro U21
Wales U21 vs Denmark U21
1:2
Jun 20, 2023 Euro U21
Denmark U21 vs Wales U21
2:2
Sep 2, 2016 Euro U21
Wales U21 vs Denmark U21
0:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Wales U21 Compare

Top Goalscorer Ashford C.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Denmark U21 Compare

Top Goalscorer Bech T.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Provstgaard O.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.16
Avg xA / game 1.32

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Wales U21 10 / 100
Denmark U21 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Wales U21 Denmark U21

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick DEN Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 4.60 goals as a typical output.

Wales U21 scored in 70% of their last 30 games.

Denmark U21's defensive record shows goals conceded in 77% of 30 matches.

Wales U21 went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Wales U21 VS Denmark U21
1 Goals Scored 2.38
2.63 Goals Conceded 1.88
88% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Wales U21

(Home)
31 Mar
Denmark U21
4 : 0
Wales U21
27 Mar
Wales U21
2 : 0
Belarus U21
14 Nov
Belarus U21
3 : 0
Wales U21
14 Oct
Austria U21
0 : 2
Wales U21
10 Oct
Wales U21
0 : 7
Belgium U21
Page 1 of 6

Denmark U21

(Away)
31 Mar
Denmark U21
4 : 0
Wales U21
18 Nov
Belarus U21
0 : 1
Denmark U21
14 Nov
Denmark U21
1 : 1
USA U21
14 Oct
Belgium U21
2 : 0
Denmark U21
10 Oct
Denmark U21
1 : 1
Austria U21
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Italy U211064027:422
2Norway U211061328:1119
3Ireland U211054124:1219
4Turkey U211041521:1513
5Latvia U211032510:1811
6San Marino U211000101:510
Promotion - Euro U21 2025 (Main)
Promotion - Euro U21 2025 (Promotion)

League Standings (Group 2)

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Spain U211091028:528
2Belgium U211061313:619
3Scotland U211051419:1116
4Hungary U211051412:816
5Kazakhstan U211030713:249
6Malta U211000104:350
Promotion - Euro U21 2025 (Main)
Promotion - Euro U21 2025 (Promotion)

League Standings (Group 3)

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Netherlands U2110100032:330
2Georgia U211061314:1019
3Sweden U211052325:1017
4North Macedonia U21104068:1512
5Moldova U21102177:207
6Gibraltar U21101093:313
Promotion - Euro U21 2025 (Main)
Promotion - Euro U21 2025 (Promotion)

League Standings (Group 4)

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Germany U211082035:1026
2Poland U211071224:1022
3Bulgaria U211043317:1215
4Kosovo U211033410:1712
5Estonia U21102177:317
6Israel U21101095:183
Promotion - Euro U21 2025 (Main)
Promotion - Euro U21 2025 (Promotion)

League Standings (Group 5)

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Romania U211071223:1022
2Finland U211062221:820
3Switzerland U211053221:1218
4Albania U211051412:1716
5Montenegro U21102178:197
6Armenia U21100282:212
Promotion - Euro U21 2025 (Main)
Promotion - Euro U21 2025 (Promotion)

League Standings (Group 6)

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1England U211081141:625
2Ukraine U211080220:724
3Serbia U211051413:1816
4Northern Ireland U211032510:1011
5Luxembourg U21102266:238
6Azerbaijan U21101094:303
Promotion - Euro U21 2025 (Main)
Promotion - Euro U21 2025 (Promotion)

League Standings (Group 7)

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Portugal U211090133:627
2Croatia U211071220:1422
3Greece U211052316:1017
4Faroe Islands U211031611:2410
5Belarus U21101366:206
6Andorra U21100374:163
Promotion - Euro U21 2025 (Main)
Promotion - Euro U21 2025 (Promotion)

League Standings (Group 8)

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Slovenia U21852113:717
2France U21851222:616
3Austria U21843112:615
4Cyprus U2181257:235
5Bosnia & Herzegovina U2181075:173
Promotion - Euro U21 2025 (Main)
Promotion - Euro U21 2025 (Promotion)

League Standings (Group 9)

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Denmark U21852118:817
2Czech Republic U21842213:1114
3Wales U21842213:1114
4Iceland U2183059:149
5Lithuania U2181077:163
Promotion - Euro U21 2025 (Main)
Promotion - Euro U21 2025 (Promotion)