Sport Picks

Europe

Euro 2024 Cardiff City Stadium

Poland

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Wales play Poland in the Euro 2024. It looks like a close match. Recently, Wales averaged 1.6 goals scored and 1.13 conceded. Poland averaged 1.67 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. In past meetings, Wales won 0, Poland won 5, and they drew 0. Their last match on Mar 26, 2024 ended 0:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.38 for Wales and 1.69 for Poland. This points to a Poland double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%

Wales

20%

Draws

44%

Poland

Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Poland

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

72% / Medium Confidence

Wales picked up more points recently compared to Poland.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.38 vs 1.69 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 74%

Over 2.5 Goals 49%

Over 3.5 Goals 29%

Over 4.5 Goals 15%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 58%

Wales Clean Sheet 13%

Poland Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 67%

Second Half Goal 70%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Wales	Poland
Matches Played	30	30
Wins	12	14
Draws	10	7
Losses	8	9
Goals Scored	1.6	1.67
Goals Conceded	1.13	1.4
Expected Goals (xG)	1.63	1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.50	1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 26, 2024 Euro

Wales vs Poland

Possession: 44% - 48% Cards: 3 - 2

0:1

Sep 25, 2022 UEFA Nations League

Wales vs Poland

Possession: 59% - 58% Cards: 2 - 2

0:1

Jun 1, 2022 UEFA Nations League

Poland vs Wales

Possession: 46% - 56% Cards: 3 - 1

2:1

Feb 11, 2009 Friendly International

Wales vs Poland

Possession: 60% - 55% Cards: 4 - 3

0:1

Sep 7, 2005 World Championship

Poland vs Wales

Possession: 55% - 54% Cards: 3 - 3

1:0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Wales 35 / 100

Poland 42 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Wales Poland

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Poland or Draw (X2)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +28.5%

3.57

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +14.2%

2.33

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Wales attacking → ← attacking Poland

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Wales scored in 73% of their last 30 games.

Poland let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 1.40 goals.

Wales went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Poland lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

46 Points in last 5 49

1.63 Goals expected (xG) 1.88

1.50 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.13