Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Wales W vs Italy W - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Europe Europe

UEFA Nations League Women Swansea.com Stadium, Swansea
Wales W Logo

Wales W

1 - 4
FT
Italy W Logo

Italy W

Our Tip

Match Events

9' Event
Linari E.
21' Event
Girelli C.
Assist: Giugliano M.
35'
Soffia A.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The UEFA Nations League Women game between Wales W and Italy W finished 1-4, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Italy W.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

38%
Wales W
35%
Draws
27%
Italy W
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Wales W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Wales W's 1.79 goals per match outpaces what Italy W have produced (1.54).
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Continental football usually means sharper preparation from both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Italy W here — 4 wins from the last 4 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
Wales W Clean Sheet 19%
Italy W Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Wales W Italy W
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 10 10
Draws 8 10
Losses 10 8
Goals Scored 1.79 1.54
Goals Conceded 1.61 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 3, 2025 UEFA Nations League Women
Wales W vs Italy W
1:4
Feb 21, 2025 UEFA Nations League Women
Italy W vs Wales W
1:0
Jan 22, 2019 Friendly International Women
Italy W vs Wales W
2:0
Mar 2, 2018 International Tournament (Cyprus) Women
Wales W vs Italy W
0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Wales W Compare

Top Goalscorer Fishlock J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Italy W Compare

Top Goalscorer Girelli C.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Linari E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Wales W 32 / 100
Italy W 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Wales W Italy W

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Wales W scored in 89% of their last 28 games.

Recent resilience: Wales W stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Italy W has conceded goals in 61% of their last 28 outings.

H2H data points to 2.75 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

Wales W VS Italy W
2.63 Goals Scored 1.5
1 Goals Conceded 1.13
88% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 50%
63% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Wales W

(Home)
09 Jun
Wales W
3 : 1
Czech Republic W
05 Jun
Montenegro W
1 : 1
Wales W
18 Apr
Albania W
0 : 1
Wales W
14 Apr
Wales W
4 : 0
Albania W
07 Mar
Wales W
6 : 1
Montenegro W
Page 1 of 6

Italy W

(Away)
09 Jun
Sweden W
2 : 2
Italy W
05 Jun
Italy W
3 : 0
Serbia W
18 Apr
Denmark W
0 : 0
Italy W
14 Apr
Serbia W
0 : 6
Italy W
07 Mar
Italy W
1 : 1
Denmark W
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Germany W 6 5 1 0 26:4 16
2 Netherlands W 6 3 2 1 11:10 11
3 Austria W 6 2 0 4 5:16 6
4 Scotland W 6 0 1 5 3:15 1
Promotion - UEFA Nations League Women (League A - Play Offs)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League Women (Relegation - League A/B)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League Women 2027 (League B)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 France W 6 6 0 0 14:2 18
2 Norway W 6 2 2 2 4:5 8
3 Iceland W 6 0 4 2 6:9 4
4 Switzerland W 6 0 2 4 4:12 2
Promotion - UEFA Nations League Women (League A - Play Offs)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League Women (Relegation - League A/B)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League Women 2027 (League B)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Spain W 6 5 0 1 21:8 15
2 England W 6 3 1 2 16:6 10
3 Belgium W 6 2 0 4 9:16 6
4 Portugal W 6 1 1 4 5:21 4
Promotion - UEFA Nations League Women (League A - Play Offs)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League Women (Relegation - League A/B)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League Women 2027 (League B)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sweden W 6 3 3 0 13:6 12
2 Italy W 6 3 1 2 11:7 10
3 Denmark W 6 3 0 3 8:13 9
4 Wales W 6 0 2 4 4:10 2
Promotion - UEFA Nations League Women (League A - Play Offs)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League Women (Relegation - League A/B)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League Women 2027 (League B)