Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Wanderers vs Penarol

Uruguay Uruguay

Liga AUF Uruguaya Estádio Parque Alfredo Víctor Viera, Montevideo
Our Tip

Match Events

35'
Mencia Hernandez D. J.
41'
Togni G.
46'
Sub
Togni G. In: Gonzalez F.
Out: Togni G.

AI Match Summary

Wanderers in this Liga AUF Uruguaya matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Wanderers.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Wanderers
30%
Draws
47%
Penarol
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Penarol

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Attack-wise there's a gap: Penarol at 1.5 per game, Wanderers at 1.28.
  • Win probability leans Penarol's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Liga AUF Uruguaya form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Penarol here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Wanderers Clean Sheet 10%
Penarol Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Wanderers Penarol
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 12 12
Draws 7 8
Losses 10 8
Goals Scored 1.28 1.5
Goals Conceded 1.34 0.96
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 2.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 5, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Penarol vs Wanderers
5:1
Apr 26, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Wanderers vs Penarol
1:0
Oct 19, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Penarol vs Wanderers
3:0
Jun 22, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Penarol vs Wanderers
2:0
Apr 19, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Wanderers vs Penarol
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Wanderers Compare

Top Goalscorer Labandeira F.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47

Penarol Compare

Avg xG / game 1.99
Avg xA / game 1.22

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Wanderers 10 / 100
Penarol 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Wanderers Penarol

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Penarol Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Wanderers found the back of the net in 83% of recent matches (29 games).

Defensive concern: Penarol conceded in 71% of 28 recent games.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Recent resilience: Wanderers stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Wanderers VS Penarol
1.13 Goals Scored 2.13
2.25 Goals Conceded 0.75
88% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Wanderers

(Home)
12 Sept
Wanderers
1 : 1
Club Nacional
09 Sept
Maldonado
4 : 1
Wanderers
05 Sept
Maldonado
2 : 0
Wanderers
01 Sept
Wanderers
1 : 1
CA Cerro
28 Aug
Wanderers
3 : 0
Central Esp.
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Penarol

(Away)
13 Sept
Penarol
3 : 1
Albion
05 Sept
Danubio
0 : 4
Penarol
02 Sept
Atenas
2 : 2
Penarol
30 Aug
Penarol
0 : 1
Club Nacional
26 Aug
Penarol
1 : 0
Montevideo City
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Racing Montevideo 15 9 4 2 23:14 31
2 Maldonado 15 9 2 4 24:16 29
3 Albion 15 8 4 3 26:16 28
4 Penarol 15 8 3 4 23:16 27
5 Central Esp. 15 7 3 5 23:22 24
6 Montevideo City 15 6 5 4 22:16 23
7 Club Nacional 15 7 1 7 26:21 22
8 Defensor Sp. 15 5 6 4 13:11 21
9 Liverpool M. 15 5 5 5 20:18 20
10 Wanderers 15 6 2 7 16:21 20
11 Danubio 15 4 6 5 17:21 18
12 Cerro Largo 15 5 2 8 16:19 17
13 Boston River 15 5 2 8 14:20 17
14 Juventud 15 4 3 8 17:22 15
15 Progreso 15 2 4 9 12:23 10
16 CA Cerro 15 2 4 9 8:24 10
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Play Offs)