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Warrenpoint vs Ards

Northern Ireland Northern Ireland

NIFL Championship 2025/2026 Milltown, Warrenpoint
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Ards in this NIFL Championship 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Ards.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

26%
Warrenpoint
15%
Draws
59%
Ards
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Ards

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

59% / Medium Confidence
  • Ards have won more games recently than Warrenpoint.
  • Model gives Ards a 59% chance of winning this.
  • Continental football usually means sharper preparation from both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 65.8%
Warrenpoint Clean Sheet 16%
Ards Clean Sheet 19%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Warrenpoint Ards
Matches Played 30 32
Wins 9 13
Draws 3 6
Losses 18 13
Goals Scored 1.03 1.53
Goals Conceded 1.53 1.31
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 15, 2026 NIFL Championship
Warrenpoint vs Ards
1:3
Apr 25, 2026 NIFL Championship
Warrenpoint vs Ards
0:1
Mar 21, 2026 NIFL Championship
Ards vs Warrenpoint
3:0
Dec 26, 2025 NIFL Championship
Ards vs Warrenpoint
0:0
Sep 13, 2025 NIFL Championship
Warrenpoint vs Ards
2:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Warrenpoint 19 / 100
Ards 58 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Warrenpoint Ards

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ards Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ards has conceded goals in 75% of their last 32 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Attacking prowess: Warrenpoint scored in 47% of their last 30 outings.

Warrenpoint went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Warrenpoint VS Ards
0.38 Goals Scored 1.13
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.13
63% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Warrenpoint

(Home)
15 Aug
Warrenpoint
1 : 3
Ards
11 Aug
Warrenpoint
2 : 0
Armagh
08 Aug
Harland & Wolff
3 : 0
Warrenpoint
21 Jul
Cliftonville
2 : 1
Warrenpoint
11 Jul
Crusaders
2 : 0
Warrenpoint
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Ards

(Away)
15 Aug
Warrenpoint
1 : 3
Ards
11 Aug
Ards
2 : 2
Dundela
08 Aug
Glenavon
1 : 3
Ards
28 Jul
Carrick Rangers
1 : 0
Ards
16 Jul
Bangor FC
2 : 0
Ards
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