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Warrenpoint vs Ards - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Northern Ireland Northern Ireland

NIFL Championship Milltown, Warrenpoint
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AI Match Summary

Ards in this NIFL Championship matchup, with the score ending 1-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Ards.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

41%
Warrenpoint
30%
Draws
29%
Ards
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Warrenpoint

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

41% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Ards lately — more wins on the board than Warrenpoint.
  • 41% — that's where the model lands on Warrenpoint taking it.
  • Continental football usually means sharper preparation from both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67%
Warrenpoint Clean Sheet 20%
Ards Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Warrenpoint Ards
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 7 12
Draws 4 6
Losses 18 11
Goals Scored 1.03 1.31
Goals Conceded 1.62 1.21
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 15, 2026 NIFL Championship
Warrenpoint vs Ards
1:3
Apr 25, 2026 NIFL Championship
Warrenpoint vs Ards
0:1
Mar 21, 2026 NIFL Championship
Ards vs Warrenpoint
3:0
Dec 26, 2025 NIFL Championship
Ards vs Warrenpoint
0:0
Sep 13, 2025 NIFL Championship
Warrenpoint vs Ards
2:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Warrenpoint 49 / 100
Ards 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Warrenpoint Ards

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Warrenpoint Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ards let in goals in 72% of their last 29 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Solid form: Warrenpoint remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Warrenpoint's goal record stands at 48% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Warrenpoint VS Ards
2.13 Goals Scored 1
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.38
88% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Warrenpoint

(Home)
03 Oct
Warrenpoint
1 : 1
Annagh
25 Sept
Rathfriland Rangers
0 : 2
Warrenpoint
19 Sept
Institute
2 : 0
Warrenpoint
12 Sept
Warrenpoint
6 : 2
Moyola
05 Sept
Warrenpoint
0 : 1
Newington FC
Page 1 of 6

Ards

(Away)
03 Oct
Ballinamallard
1 : 1
Ards
26 Sept
Ards
0 : 1
Strabane Athletic
19 Sept
Moyola
0 : 0
Ards
12 Sept
Ards
1 : 0
Rathfriland Rangers
04 Sept
Annagh
2 : 1
Ards
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Annagh 10 6 3 1 24:13 21
2 Glenavon 10 6 2 2 25:13 20
3 Newington FC 11 6 2 3 24:20 20
4 Queens University 10 6 1 3 20:7 19
5 Newry City 11 5 3 3 19:19 18
6 Institute 10 5 1 4 20:17 16
7 Harland & Wolff 10 5 0 5 18:16 15
8 Ards 11 4 3 4 14:13 15
9 Warrenpoint 10 4 2 4 18:15 14
10 Ballinamallard 10 4 2 4 16:16 14
11 Loughgall 10 3 4 3 14:19 13
12 Dundela 11 2 5 4 19:23 11
13 Moyola 10 3 2 5 10:20 11
14 Strabane Athletic 10 2 3 5 10:19 9
15 Rathfriland Rangers 11 3 0 8 11:23 9
16 Armagh 11 0 5 6 9:18 5
Promotion - NIFL Championship (Promotion Group)
Relegation - NIFL Championship (Relegation Group)