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Warrenpoint vs Glenavon - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Northern Ireland Northern Ireland

NIFL Championship Milltown, Warrenpoint
Sat, Oct 24, 2026
VS
02:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Warrenpoint host Glenavon in the NIFL Championship. This has the makings of an open, high-scoring game. Glenavon have shipped 1.47 goals a game lately, while Warrenpoint have conceded 1.53 and scored 1.2. Past meetings favor Glenavon slightly — 1-3-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Oct 7, 2025, ending 0:2. Model xG sits at 1.56 vs 2.00, favoring Glenavon. AI goal market prediction: Over 2.5, BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Warrenpoint
30%
Draws
37%
Glenavon
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Glenavon

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Glenavon lately — more wins on the board than Warrenpoint.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 40%.
  • Continental football usually means sharper preparation from both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Warrenpoint Clean Sheet 10%
Glenavon Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Warrenpoint Glenavon
Matches Played 30 32
Wins 9 11
Draws 4 8
Losses 17 13
Goals Scored 1.2 1.53
Goals Conceded 1.53 1.47
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 7, 2025 Irish League Cup
Warrenpoint vs Glenavon
0:2
Apr 30, 2022 NIFL Premiership
Glenavon vs Warrenpoint
1:2
Feb 5, 2022 NIFL Premiership
Glenavon vs Warrenpoint
2:2
Nov 20, 2021 NIFL Premiership
Warrenpoint vs Glenavon
0:3
Sep 4, 2021 NIFL Premiership
Warrenpoint vs Glenavon
1:6

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Warrenpoint 30 / 100
Glenavon 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Warrenpoint Glenavon

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Glenavon conceded in 81% of 32 recent games.

H2H data points to 3.80 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Warrenpoint stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Attacking prowess: Warrenpoint scored in 53% of their last 30 outings.

Scoring Trends

Warrenpoint VS Glenavon
2 Goals Scored 2.5
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.13
88% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Warrenpoint

(Home)
10 Oct
Warrenpoint
1 : 0
Strabane Athletic
03 Oct
Warrenpoint
1 : 1
Annagh
25 Sept
Rathfriland Rangers
0 : 2
Warrenpoint
19 Sept
Institute
2 : 0
Warrenpoint
12 Sept
Warrenpoint
6 : 2
Moyola
Page 1 of 6

Glenavon

(Away)
10 Oct
Annagh
1 : 1
Glenavon
03 Oct
Moyola
0 : 3
Glenavon
25 Sept
Glenavon
4 : 1
Loughgall
19 Sept
Glenavon
1 : 0
Newington FC
12 Sept
Ballinamallard
1 : 1
Glenavon
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Annagh 11 6 4 1 25:14 22
2 Glenavon 11 6 3 2 26:14 21
3 Newington FC 11 6 2 3 24:20 20
4 Queens University 11 6 1 4 20:8 19
5 Newry City 11 5 3 3 19:19 18
6 Warrenpoint 11 5 2 4 19:15 17
7 Institute 11 5 2 4 20:17 17
8 Ballinamallard 11 5 2 4 17:16 17
9 Harland & Wolff 11 5 1 5 18:16 16
10 Ards 11 4 3 4 14:13 15
11 Moyola 11 4 2 5 12:21 14
12 Loughgall 11 3 4 4 15:21 13
13 Dundela 11 2 5 4 19:23 11
14 Strabane Athletic 11 2 3 6 10:20 9
15 Rathfriland Rangers 11 3 0 8 11:23 9
16 Armagh 11 0 5 6 9:18 5
Promotion - NIFL Championship (Promotion Group)
Relegation - NIFL Championship (Relegation Group)