Sport Picks
Warrenpoint vs Lisburn Distillery Prediction & H2H Stats
Northern Ireland
Irish Cup Milltown, Warrenpoint 
Match Events
9'
9'
Lavery L.
30'
30'
Carroll A.
55'
55'
Loye D.
AI Match Summary
First leg ended 4-3. This leg finished 4-3.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
40%
20%
40%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
40%
/ Low Confidence
- Form's been kind to Lisburn Distillery lately — more wins on the board than Warrenpoint.
- Win probability leans Warrenpoint's way, sitting at 70%.
- Lisburn Distillery arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
- Historical meetings favor Warrenpoint, who have won 3 of the last 3 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- Warrenpoint have won 3 of the last 3 meetings between these two.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.8%
Warrenpoint Clean Sheet 20%
Lisburn Distillery Clean Sheet 19%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Warrenpoint | Lisburn Distillery |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 31 | 30 |
| Wins | 9 | 10 |
| Draws | 3 | 1 |
| Losses | 19 | 19 |
| Goals Scored | 1.13 | 1.63 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.61 | 3.3 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.72 | 1.19 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jan 13, 2026 Irish Cup
Warrenpoint vs Lisburn Distillery
4:3
Aug 13, 2024 Irish League Cup
Warrenpoint vs Lisburn Distillery
2:0
Sep 2, 2015 Irish League Cup
Warrenpoint vs Lisburn Distillery
5:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Warrenpoint Compare
Top Goalscorer Carroll A.
1 Goals Assists Leader Loye D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.55
Avg xA / game 0.36
Lisburn Distillery Compare
Top Goalscorer Lavery L.
1 Goals Assists Leader Keke G.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Warrenpoint 67 / 100
Lisburn Distillery 16 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Warrenpoint Lisburn Distillery
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Warrenpoint Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Lisburn Distillery let in goals in 93% of their last 30 matches.
These sides typically produce 5.00 goals when they meet.
Solid form: Warrenpoint remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.
Attacking prowess: Warrenpoint scored in 48% of their last 31 outings.
Scoring Trends
Warrenpoint VS -
0.25 Goals Scored 0
1.38 Goals Conceded 0
38% Over 1.5 0%
25% Over 2.5 0%
13% Over 3.5 0%
Recent Form & Match History
Warrenpoint
(Home) 25 Sept
Rathfriland Rangers
0 : 2 Warrenpoint
19 Sept
Institute
2 : 0 Warrenpoint
12 Sept
Warrenpoint
6 : 2 Moyola
05 Sept
Warrenpoint
0 : 1 Newington FC
28 Aug
Loughgall
3 : 3 Warrenpoint
Page 1 of 7
12 Sept
Warrenpoint
6 : 2 Moyola
05 Sept
Warrenpoint
0 : 1 Newington FC
15 Aug
Warrenpoint
1 : 3 Ards
11 Aug
Warrenpoint
2 : 0 Armagh
25 Apr
Warrenpoint
0 : 1 Ards
Page 1 of 3
Lisburn Distillery
(Away) 13 Jan
Warrenpoint
4 : 3 Lisburn Distillery
22 Nov
Lisburn Distillery
4 : 2 Finaghy FC
07 Oct
Bangor FC
4 : 1 Lisburn Distillery
12 Aug
Lisburn Distillery
3 : 2 Banbridge
22 Jul
Lisburn Distillery
2 : 2 Harland & Wolff
Page 1 of 6
13 Jan
Warrenpoint
4 : 3 Lisburn Distillery
07 Oct
Bangor FC
4 : 1 Lisburn Distillery
28 Jan
Ballyclare
4 : 1 Lisburn Distillery
13 Aug
Warrenpoint
2 : 0 Lisburn Distillery
03 Oct
Ballymena
4 : 0 Lisburn Distillery
Page 1 of 4
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/32-finals
TBD -
Loughgall -
Wakehurst 2
Knockbreda 4
Ballinamallard -
TBD -
TBD -
Institute -
Cliftonville -
TBD -
TBD -
Dundela -
Glenavon -
TBD -
TBD -
Newington FC -
Portadown -
TBD -
TBD -
Annagh -
Dungannon -
TBD -
TBD -
Ards -
Newbuildings 1
Moyola 2
TBD -
Harland & Wolff -
Comber Rec 3
Hanover 1
Ballymacash 4
Willowbank 0
Strabane Athletic 2
Rathfriland Rangers 1
TBD -
Glentoran -
Armagh -
TBD -
Newry City 1
Drumaness 2
Lisburn Distillery 4
Finaghy FC 2
TBD -
Warrenpoint -
Ballymena -
TBD -
TBD -
Larne -
Limavady -
TBD -
Lisburn Rangers 5
Dergview 4
Linfield -
TBD -
TBD -
Bangor FC -
Carrick Rangers -
TBD -
TBD -
Queens University -
Coleraine -
TBD -
TBD -
Crusaders -
1/16-finals
Loughgall 2
Knockbreda 0
Ballinamallard 0
Institute 3
Cliftonville 3
Dundela 0
Glenavon 4
Newington FC 2
Portadown 4
Annagh 2
Dungannon 3
Ards 0
Moyola 2
Harland & Wolff 4
Comber Rec 0
Ballymacash 3
Strabane Athletic 0
Glentoran 4
Armagh 1
Drumaness 4
Lisburn Distillery 3
Warrenpoint 4
Ballymena 1
Larne 2
Limavady 4
Lisburn Rangers 1
Linfield 1
Bangor FC 0
Carrick Rangers 5
Queens University 1
Coleraine 4
Crusaders 0
1/8-finals
Loughgall 2
Institute 1
Cliftonville 2
Glenavon 1
Portadown 1
Dungannon 2
Harland & Wolff 3
Ballymacash 0
Glentoran 5
Drumaness 0
Warrenpoint 0
Larne 2
Limavady 1
Linfield 0
Carrick Rangers 1
Coleraine 4
Quarter-finals
Loughgall 0
Cliftonville 3
Dungannon 3
Harland & Wolff 0
Glentoran 1
Larne 2
Limavady 0
Coleraine 2
Semi-finals
Cliftonville 1
Dungannon 2
Larne 1
Coleraine 2
Final
Dungannon 2
Coleraine 3
