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Stadium Background

Watergraafsmeer vs HBC

Netherlands Netherlands

Derde Divisie 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

16' Event
Dijkstra A.
90' Event
van Loon J.

AI Match Summary

HBC in this Derde Divisie 2023/2024 tie, finishing 0-2. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Watergraafsmeer
20%
Draws
29%
HBC
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Watergraafsmeer

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Watergraafsmeer have won more games recently than HBC.
  • Model gives Watergraafsmeer a 51% chance of winning this.
  • Watergraafsmeer have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor HBC, who have won 1 of the last 2 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
Watergraafsmeer Clean Sheet 14%
HBC Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Watergraafsmeer HBC
Matches Played 29 32
Wins 8 3
Draws 4 7
Losses 17 22
Goals Scored 1.41 1.28
Goals Conceded 2.31 2.53
Expected Goals (xG) 2.06 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 8, 2024 Derde Divisie
Watergraafsmeer vs HBC
0:2
Jun 5, 2024 Derde Divisie
HBC vs Watergraafsmeer
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Watergraafsmeer Compare

Avg xG / game 1.58
Avg xA / game 1.03

HBC Compare

Top Goalscorer Dijkstra A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader van Loon J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Watergraafsmeer 48 / 100
HBC 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Watergraafsmeer HBC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Watergraafsmeer Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: HBC conceded in 97% of 32 recent games.

Watergraafsmeer's goal record stands at 66% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.50 goals when they meet.

Watergraafsmeer went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Watergraafsmeer VS HBC
1.75 Goals Scored 1.38
1.88 Goals Conceded 2.38
63% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Watergraafsmeer

(Home)
23 Sept
Watergraafsmeer
5 : 4
TEC
02 Sept
Dongen
2 : 4
Watergraafsmeer
30 May
Watergraafsmeer
2 : 3
NEO
27 May
NEO
3 : 0
Watergraafsmeer
07 Jun
Watergraafsmeer
2 : 2
Excelsior 31
Page 1 of 6

HBC

(Away)
07 Jun
HVV Hollandia
2 : 0
HBC
03 Jun
HBC
0 : 1
HVV Hollandia
30 May
Flevo Boys
1 : 1
HBC
27 May
HBC
3 : 1
Flevo Boys
24 May
HBC
0 : 2
Huizen
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
HBC 3
VV Scherpenzeel 2
Watergraafsmeer 5
Staphorst 4
Rohda Raalte 4
VV Hoogeveen 3
AZSV 1
Huizen 2
Smitshoek 3
AWC 1
Westlandia 0
Achilles Veen 5
Dongen 2
GVV Unitas 3
RKSV Halsteren 2
FC 's-Gravenzande 5
Final
HBC 4
Watergraafsmeer 1
Rohda Raalte 0
Huizen 1
Smitshoek 2
Achilles Veen 0
GVV Unitas 2
FC 's-Gravenzande 3