Sport Picks

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Waterhouse vs Montego Bay

Jamaica Jamaica

Premier League 2025/2026 Waterhouse Mini Stadium, Kingston
Our Tip

Match Events

11' Event
Lewis T.
67' Event
Arbourine K.
74' Event
Brown B.

AI Match Summary

The Premier League 2025/2026 game between Waterhouse and Montego Bay finished 0-4, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Montego Bay.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
Waterhouse
15%
Draws
39%
Montego Bay
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Waterhouse

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Waterhouse have managed 1.39 goals a game lately — Montego Bay are scoring more at 2.
  • Model gives Waterhouse a 46% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.8%
Waterhouse Clean Sheet 68%
Montego Bay Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Waterhouse Montego Bay
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 15 15
Draws 6 6
Losses 7 8
Goals Scored 1.39 2
Goals Conceded 0.82 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 16, 2026 Premier League
Waterhouse vs Montego Bay
0:4
Mar 10, 2026 Premier League
Waterhouse vs Montego Bay
1:0
Dec 21, 2025 Premier League
Montego Bay vs Waterhouse
0:1
Apr 3, 2025 Premier League
Waterhouse vs Montego Bay
1:1
Jan 30, 2025 Premier League
Montego Bay vs Waterhouse
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Waterhouse Compare

Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78

Montego Bay Compare

Top Goalscorer Lewis T.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Arbourine K.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Waterhouse 86 / 100
Montego Bay 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Waterhouse Montego Bay

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Waterhouse Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Waterhouse scored in 79% of their last 28 games.

Montego Bay let in goals in 62% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Recent resilience: Waterhouse stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Waterhouse VS Montego Bay
1.5 Goals Scored 1.75
1 Goals Conceded 1.63
75% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Waterhouse

(Home)
13 May
Waterhouse
0 : 2
Cavalier
11 May
Cavalier
2 : 2
Waterhouse
06 May
Waterhouse
4 : 0
FC Dunbeholden
03 May
Waterhouse
3 : 0
Chapelton
28 Apr
Mount Pleasant
2 : 1
Waterhouse
Page 1 of 6

Montego Bay

(Away)
13 Sept
Montego Bay
2 : 0
Chapelton
24 May
Montego Bay
2 : 3
Mount Pleasant
21 May
Montego Bay
0 : 2
Cavalier
17 May
Cavalier
0 : 1
Montego Bay
06 May
Mount Pleasant
2 : 1
Montego Bay
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Mount Pleasant 39 20 14 5 69:25 74
2 Montego Bay 39 21 8 10 79:45 71
3 Portmore 39 17 15 7 54:35 66
4 Waterhouse 39 19 8 12 51:32 65
5 Cavalier 39 19 4 16 57:41 61
6 Racing United 39 14 18 7 53:34 60
7 Arnett Gardens 39 17 7 15 68:46 58
8 Chapelton 39 14 7 18 42:57 49
9 FC Dunbeholden 39 13 9 17 40:53 48
10 Tivoli 39 11 11 17 37:58 44
11 Treasure Beach 39 10 13 16 43:59 43
12 Molynes United 39 9 15 15 45:47 42
13 Harbour View 39 9 12 18 53:73 39
14 Spanish Town Police 39 7 5 27 25:111 26
Promotion - Premier League 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Premier League 2025/2026 (Play Offs)