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Waterside Karori W vs Ellerslie W

New Zealand New Zealand

National League Women 2023
Our Tip

Match Events

44' Event
Ward K.
67' Event
Ward K.
75' Event
Bacon R.

AI Match Summary

Waterside Karori W in this National League Women 2023 matchup, with the score ending 3-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Waterside Karori W.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Waterside Karori W
44%
Draws
20%
Ellerslie W
Draw rate projection: 44% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • Waterside Karori W have won more games recently than Ellerslie W.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
  • Regular National League Women 2023 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Waterside Karori W Clean Sheet 20%
Ellerslie W Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Waterside Karori W Ellerslie W
Matches Played 22 10
Wins 9 2
Draws 4 0
Losses 9 8
Goals Scored 2.25 0.75
Goals Conceded 1.38 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 2.25 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.38 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 28, 2023 National League Women
Waterside Karori W vs Ellerslie W
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Waterside Karori W Compare

Top Goalscorer Ward K.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Bacon R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.73
Avg xA / game 1.13

Ellerslie W Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Waterside Karori W 36 / 100
Ellerslie W 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Waterside Karori W Ellerslie W

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick ELL Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Waterside Karori W scored in 82% of their last 22 games.

Ellerslie W let in goals in 90% of their last 10 matches.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Ellerslie W lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Waterside Karori W VS Ellerslie W
2.25 Goals Scored 0.75
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.25
88% Over 1.5 50%
75% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Waterside Karori W

(Home)
05 Jul
Wellington Phoenix 2 W
4 : 0
Waterside Karori W
05 Jul
Waterside Karori W
1 : 4
Wellington Phoenix 2 W
01 Dec
Auckland United W
3 : 1
Waterside Karori W
23 Nov
Southern United W
2 : 0
Waterside Karori W
16 Nov
Waterside Karori W
3 : 1
West Coast Rangers W
Page 1 of 5

Ellerslie W

(Away)
04 Jul
Ellerslie W
2 : 1
Western Springs W
19 Nov
Southern United W
3 : 0
Ellerslie W
12 Nov
Eastern Suburbs W
0 : 1
Ellerslie W
04 Nov
Ellerslie W
0 : 1
Central Football W
28 Oct
Waterside Karori W
3 : 0
Ellerslie W
Page 1 of 2

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Auckland United W971125:922
2Southern United W971122:622
3Eastern Suburbs W970222:1221
4Western Springs W961228:1119
5Wellington United W941418:1613
6Waterside Karori W941418:1613
7Canterbury United W921617:227
8Wellington Phoenix 2 W921612:267
9Central Football W91176:304
10Ellerslie W91083:233
Promotion - National League Women 2023 (Play Offs)