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Wellington Phoenix 2 vs Miramar

New Zealand New Zealand

National League 2025 Fraser Park, Lower Hutt
Our Tip

Match Events

10' Event
Supyk L.
16' Event
Bevin A.
34' Event
Bueno M.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

The National League 2025 game between Wellington Phoenix 2 and Miramar finished 1-4, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Miramar.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Wellington Phoenix 2
15%
Draws
48%
Miramar
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Miramar

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

37% / Low Confidence
  • Miramar carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Wellington Phoenix 2 a 37% chance of winning this.
  • Regular National League 2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.8%
Wellington Phoenix 2 Clean Sheet 10%
Miramar Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Wellington Phoenix 2 Miramar
Matches Played 31 28
Wins 11 12
Draws 3 2
Losses 17 14
Goals Scored 1.94 2.14
Goals Conceded 2.26 1.93
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 2.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 25, 2025 National League
Wellington Phoenix 2 vs Miramar
1:4
Oct 29, 2022 National League
Wellington Phoenix 2 vs Miramar
2:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Wellington Phoenix 2 Compare

Top Goalscorer Supyk L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Miramar Compare

Top Goalscorer Bevin A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Fenton L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.99
Avg xA / game 1.22

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Wellington Phoenix 2 38 / 100
Miramar 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Wellington Phoenix 2 Miramar

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Wellington Phoenix 2 Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Miramar let in goals in 86% of their last 28 matches.

H2H data points to 5.00 goals as a typical output.

Wellington Phoenix 2 scored in 71% of their last 31 games.

Recent resilience: Wellington Phoenix 2 stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Wellington Phoenix 2 VS Miramar
1.5 Goals Scored 2.5
1.88 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 100%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Wellington Phoenix 2

(Home)
26 Sept
Wellington Phoenix 2
1 : 1
Auckland United
07 Dec
Western Suburbs
2 : 7
Wellington Phoenix 2
29 Nov
Wellington Phoenix 2
2 : 3
Birkenhead
22 Nov
Auckland City
2 : 0
Wellington Phoenix 2
15 Nov
Wellington Phoenix 2
1 : 0
Coastal Spirit
Page 1 of 7

Miramar

(Away)
26 Jul
Cashmere Technical
2 : 1
Miramar
04 Jul
Island Bay
1 : 3
Miramar
06 Dec
Wellington Olympic
2 : 1
Miramar
29 Nov
Miramar
2 : 1
Western Suburbs
23 Nov
Birkenhead
1 : 4
Miramar
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Wellington Olympic 10 7 0 3 23:14 21
2 Auckland City 10 6 2 2 19:14 20
3 Miramar 10 6 1 3 25:14 19
4 Auckland FC 2 10 5 3 2 17:10 18
5 Western Springs 10 5 1 4 16:13 16
6 Birkenhead 10 5 0 5 20:21 15
7 Christchurch 10 4 2 4 16:19 14
8 Wellington Phoenix 2 10 3 1 6 18:21 10
9 Western Suburbs 10 3 1 6 19:21 10
10 Auckland United 10 2 2 6 11:19 8
11 Coastal Spirit 10 2 1 7 5:23 7
Promotion - National League 2025 (Grand Final)