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Wellington Phoenix 2 vs Napier City

New Zealand New Zealand

National League 2023
Our Tip

Match Events

49' Event
Corfe D.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

Napier City in this National League 2023 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Napier City.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

13%
Wellington Phoenix 2
17%
Draws
70%
Napier City
Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: Napier City

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

88% / Very High Confidence
  • Wellington Phoenix 2 have won more games recently than Napier City.
  • Model gives Napier City a 70% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Napier City have won 2 of the last 3 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 58.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 26%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.4%
Wellington Phoenix 2 Clean Sheet 10%
Napier City Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Wellington Phoenix 2 Napier City
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 12 9
Draws 2 4
Losses 16 16
Goals Scored 2 2
Goals Conceded 2 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.00 1.17

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 13, 2024 National League
Napier City vs Wellington Phoenix 2
1:1
Oct 14, 2023 National League
Wellington Phoenix 2 vs Napier City
0:1
Oct 1, 2022 National League
Napier City vs Wellington Phoenix 2
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Wellington Phoenix 2 14 / 100
Napier City 65 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Wellington Phoenix 2 Napier City

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick NAP Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Napier City has conceded goals in 86% of their last 29 outings.

Attacking prowess: Wellington Phoenix 2 scored in 70% of their last 30 outings.

Historical meetings average 1.33 goals per match.

Solid form: Wellington Phoenix 2 remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Wellington Phoenix 2 VS Napier City
2 Goals Scored 2
2 Goals Conceded 1.17
88% Over 1.5 67%
75% Over 2.5 67%
50% Over 3.5 67%

Recent Form & Match History

Wellington Phoenix 2

(Home)
07 Dec
Western Suburbs
2 : 7
Wellington Phoenix 2
29 Nov
Wellington Phoenix 2
2 : 3
Birkenhead
22 Nov
Auckland City
2 : 0
Wellington Phoenix 2
15 Nov
Wellington Phoenix 2
1 : 0
Coastal Spirit
09 Nov
Western Springs
3 : 0
Wellington Phoenix 2
Page 1 of 6

Napier City

(Away)
04 Jul
Petone
0 : 4
Napier City
06 Jul
Napier City
2 : 3
Wellington Olympic
23 Nov
Wellington Olympic
2 : 3
Napier City
17 Nov
Napier City
0 : 1
Auckland City
10 Nov
Coastal Spirit
1 : 3
Napier City
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Wellington Olympic972034:1523
2Auckland City970219:1221
3Christchurch951318:1616
4Eastern Suburbs943223:1115
5Manurewa941416:2013
6Cashmere Technical941424:2413
7Auckland United924315:1710
8Wellington Phoenix 2930619:249
9Napier City921613:267
10Petone90186:221
Promotion - National League 2023 (Grand Final)