Sport Picks
Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory Prediction & H2H Stats
Australia
A-League 2025/2026 Sky Stadium, Wellington 
Match Events
10'
10'
Esposito S.
Assist: Piscopo R.
39'
39'
Armiento C.
Assist: Najjarine R.
41'
41'
Nduka C.
AI Match Summary
Melbourne Victory in this A-League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Melbourne Victory.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
35%
15%
50%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Melbourne Victory
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
50%
/ Medium Confidence
- Form's been kind to Melbourne Victory lately — more wins on the board than Wellington Phoenix.
- 50% — that's where the model lands on Melbourne Victory taking it.
- Regular A-League 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- These two have met 5 times recently and Melbourne Victory have taken 4 of them.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Wellington Phoenix Clean Sheet 13%
Melbourne Victory Clean Sheet 12%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Wellington Phoenix | Melbourne Victory |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 31 |
| Wins | 12 | 15 |
| Draws | 6 | 7 |
| Losses | 12 | 9 |
| Goals Scored | 1.33 | 1.74 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.77 | 1.16 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.19 | 1.65 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Apr 5, 2026 A-League
Melbourne Victory vs Wellington Phoenix
0:1
Feb 6, 2026 A-League
Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory
2:3
Dec 29, 2025 A-League
Melbourne Victory vs Wellington Phoenix
5:1
Apr 12, 2025 A-League
Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory
2:3
Feb 14, 2025 A-League
Melbourne Victory vs Wellington Phoenix
1:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Wellington Phoenix Compare
Top Goalscorer Armiento C.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59
Melbourne Victory Compare
Top Goalscorer Esposito S.
1 Goals Assists Leader Velupillay N.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.5
Avg xA / game 0.92
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Wellington Phoenix 11 / 100
Melbourne Victory 74 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Wellington Phoenix Melbourne Victory
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Melbourne Victory Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Wellington Phoenix found the back of the net in 80% of recent matches (30 games).
These sides typically produce 3.60 goals when they meet.
Melbourne Victory has conceded goals in 74% of their last 31 outings.
Solid form: Wellington Phoenix remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Wellington Phoenix VS Melbourne Victory
1.14 Goals Scored 2
1.29 Goals Conceded 1.25
86% Over 1.5 75%
43% Over 2.5 63%
14% Over 3.5 63%
Recent Form & Match History
Wellington Phoenix
(Home) 24 Apr
Macarthur FC
4 : 0 Wellington Phoenix
18 Apr
Wellington Phoenix
2 : 1 Western Sydney Wanderers
12 Apr
Melbourne City
2 : 0 Wellington Phoenix
05 Apr
Melbourne Victory
0 : 1 Wellington Phoenix
21 Mar
Brisbane Roar
1 : 2 Wellington Phoenix
Page 1 of 6
18 Apr
Wellington Phoenix
2 : 1 Western Sydney Wanderers
14 Mar
Wellington Phoenix
2 : 0 Perth Glory
01 Mar
Wellington Phoenix
0 : 1 Sydney FC
21 Feb
Wellington Phoenix
0 : 5 Auckland FC
06 Feb
Wellington Phoenix
2 : 3 Melbourne Victory
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Melbourne Victory
(Away) 16 Sept
Viettel
1 : 1 Melbourne Victory
09 Sept
Sydney FC
0 : 2 Melbourne Victory
19 Aug
APIA Leichhardt
0 : 1 Melbourne Victory
08 Aug
Western Sydney Wanderers
1 : 2 Melbourne Victory
26 Jul
Kingborough Lions
0 : 4 Melbourne Victory
Page 1 of 7
16 Sept
Viettel
1 : 1 Melbourne Victory
09 Sept
Sydney FC
0 : 2 Melbourne Victory
19 Aug
APIA Leichhardt
0 : 1 Melbourne Victory
08 Aug
Western Sydney Wanderers
1 : 2 Melbourne Victory
26 Jul
Kingborough Lions
0 : 4 Melbourne Victory
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League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Newcastle Jets | 26 | 15 | 3 | 8 | 55:39 | 48 |
| 2 | Adelaide Utd | 26 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 46:36 | 43 |
| 3 | Auckland FC | 26 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 42:29 | 42 |
| 4 | Melbourne Victory | 26 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 44:33 | 40 |
| 5 | Sydney FC | 26 | 11 | 6 | 9 | 33:25 | 39 |
| 6 | Melbourne City | 26 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 33:33 | 38 |
| 7 | Macarthur FC | 26 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 37:44 | 34 |
| 8 | Wellington Phoenix | 26 | 9 | 6 | 11 | 36:48 | 33 |
| 9 | Central Coast | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 35:42 | 32 |
| 10 | Perth Glory | 26 | 8 | 7 | 11 | 32:39 | 31 |
| 11 | Brisbane Roar | 26 | 6 | 8 | 12 | 27:36 | 26 |
| 12 | Western Sydney Wanderers | 26 | 5 | 6 | 15 | 27:43 | 21 |
Promotion - A-League 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - A-League 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
