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Wellington Phoenix W vs Melbourne Victory W - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Australia Australia

A-League Women Sky Stadium, Wellington
Sat, Oct 24, 2026
VS
11:15 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Wellington Phoenix W host Melbourne Victory W in the A-League Women. This looks like a genuine coin-flip fixture. Recent numbers: Wellington Phoenix W at 1.57 goals for, 1.07 against; Melbourne Victory W at 1.52 for, 1.13 against. Head-to-head, Wellington Phoenix W have won 1 to Melbourne Victory W's 1, with 3 draws. They last met on Feb 20, 2026, ending 1:1. The numbers (1.13 xG vs 1.13) point toward Melbourne Victory W. AI prediction: Draw (X). Expect a competitive, tight affair.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Wellington Phoenix W
15%
Draws
42%
Melbourne Victory W
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Wellington Phoenix W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Melbourne Victory W come out ahead of Wellington Phoenix W on wins alone.
  • 42% — that's where the model lands on Wellington Phoenix W taking it.
  • Regular A-League Women form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Wellington Phoenix W Clean Sheet 20%
Melbourne Victory W Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Wellington Phoenix W Melbourne Victory W
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 12 16
Draws 5 4
Losses 13 11
Goals Scored 1.57 1.52
Goals Conceded 1.07 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 20, 2026 A-League Women
Melbourne Victory W vs Wellington Phoenix W
1:1
Nov 23, 2025 A-League Women
Wellington Phoenix W vs Melbourne Victory W
1:0
Feb 8, 2025 A-League Women
Wellington Phoenix W vs Melbourne Victory W
1:1
Dec 13, 2024 A-League Women
Melbourne Victory W vs Wellington Phoenix W
1:1
Mar 3, 2024 A-League Women
Melbourne Victory W vs Wellington Phoenix W
5:3

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Wellington Phoenix W 42 / 100
Melbourne Victory W 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Wellington Phoenix W Melbourne Victory W

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Wellington Phoenix W's goal record stands at 80% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Melbourne Victory W has conceded goals in 68% of their last 31 outings.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Melbourne Victory W's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Wellington Phoenix W VS Melbourne Victory W
1.5 Goals Scored 1.13
1.13 Goals Conceded 0.75
88% Over 1.5 50%
63% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Wellington Phoenix W

(Home)
16 May
Melbourne City W
3 : 1
Wellington Phoenix W
10 May
Wellington Phoenix W
2 : 0
Brisbane Roar W
03 May
Brisbane Roar W
2 : 1
Wellington Phoenix W
03 Apr
Adelaide W
0 : 2
Wellington Phoenix W
29 Mar
Wellington Phoenix W
0 : 1
Western Sydney Wanderers W
Page 1 of 6

Melbourne Victory W

(Away)
09 May
Melbourne City W
1 : 0
Melbourne Victory W
02 May
Melbourne Victory W
0 : 1
Melbourne City W
25 Apr
Canberra W
1 : 3
Melbourne Victory W
03 Apr
Perth W
0 : 1
Melbourne Victory W
28 Mar
Sydney W
2 : 1
Melbourne Victory W
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Adelaide W 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
2 Brisbane Roar W 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
3 Newcastle W 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
4 Canberra W 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
5 Sydney W 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
6 Melbourne Victory W 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
7 Perth W 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
8 Western Sydney Wanderers W 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
9 Melbourne City W 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
10 Wellington Phoenix W 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
11 Central Coast W 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - A-League Women (Play Offs)
Promotion - A-League Women (Play Offs)