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Welwalo Adigrat vs Fasil Kenema - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Ethiopia Ethiopia

Premier League
Sat, Oct 17, 2026
VS
12:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Welwalo Adigrat host Fasil Kenema in the Premier League. This matchup has a clear pattern when you look at past meetings. Fasil Kenema have shipped 0.89 goals a game lately, while Welwalo Adigrat have conceded 0.73 and scored 1.03. Past meetings favor Fasil Kenema slightly — 1-4-0 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Feb 27, 2026, ending 1:2. Model xG sits at 0.63 vs 0.51, favoring Welwalo Adigrat. AI prediction: Draw (X). Expect a competitive, tight affair.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

38%
Welwalo Adigrat
20%
Draws
42%
Fasil Kenema
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Fasil Kenema

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Fasil Kenema haven't matched Welwalo Adigrat's recent run of results.
  • Welwalo Adigrat are the model's pick here, at 42%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Fasil Kenema have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 66.2%
Welwalo Adigrat Clean Sheet 20%
Fasil Kenema Clean Sheet 20%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Welwalo Adigrat Fasil Kenema
Matches Played 33 28
Wins 12 9
Draws 15 8
Losses 6 11
Goals Scored 1.03 0.68
Goals Conceded 0.73 0.89
Expected Goals (xG) 0.63 0.51
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 27, 2026 Premier League
Fasil Kenema vs Welwalo Adigrat
1:2
Oct 23, 2025 Premier League
Welwalo Adigrat vs Fasil Kenema
0:2
Apr 3, 2025 Premier League
Welwalo Adigrat vs Fasil Kenema
1:2
Dec 5, 2024 Premier League
Fasil Kenema vs Welwalo Adigrat
1:0
Feb 3, 2020 Premier League
Fasil Kenema vs Welwalo Adigrat
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Welwalo Adigrat 42 / 100
Fasil Kenema 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Welwalo Adigrat Fasil Kenema

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Welwalo Adigrat found the back of the net in 70% of recent matches (33 games).

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Welwalo Adigrat remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Defensive concern: Fasil Kenema conceded in 50% of 28 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Welwalo Adigrat VS Fasil Kenema
0.75 Goals Scored 0.63
0.38 Goals Conceded 0.5
38% Over 1.5 25%
0% Over 2.5 13%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Welwalo Adigrat

(Home)
09 Oct
Halaba Ketema FC
1 : 1
Welwalo Adigrat
12 Sept
Welwalo Adigrat
3 : 1
Hilal Alsahil
04 Sept
Hilal Alsahil
2 : 1
Welwalo Adigrat
09 Jul
Sidama Bunna
0 : 2
Welwalo Adigrat
02 Jul
Welwalo Adigrat
1 : 1
St. Georges
Page 1 of 7

Fasil Kenema

(Away)
01 Jul
Fasil Kenema
1 : 0
Ethiopian Insurance
26 Jun
St. Georges
1 : 0
Fasil Kenema
22 Jun
Fasil Kenema
2 : 0
Arba Menche
15 Jun
Hadiya Hossana
0 : 1
Fasil Kenema
29 May
Fasil Kenema
0 : 1
Sheger Ketema FC
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 St. Georges 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
2 Hawassa 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
3 Ethio Electric S.C. 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
4 Mechal SC 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
5 Ethiopian Insurance 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
6 Ethiopia Nigd Bank 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
7 Sidama Bunna 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
8 Welayta Dicha 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
9 Ethiopia Bunna (Ethiopian Coffee) 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
10 Adama City 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
11 Fasil Kenema 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
12 Welwalo Adigrat 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
13 Bahir Dar Kenema 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
14 Hadiya Hossana 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
15 Gamo Chencha FC 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
16 Halaba Ketema FC 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
17 Negele Arsi Ketema FC 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
18 Sheger Ketema FC 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - CAF Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup 2027/2028 (Qualification)