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Wexford vs Kerry

Ireland Ireland

Division 1 Ferrycarrig Park
Fri, Jul 10, 2026
VS
06:45 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

This looks like a tight matchup. Neither side is clearly dominant, with Wexford averaging 0.9 xG at home and Kerry producing 1.3 xG on their travels. Kerry will likely drop deep and defend, forcing Wexford to find a way to break them down. A single goal could decide this. The Under 3.5 goals market offers solid value. Everything points to a very close contest where a draw wouldn't surprise anyone.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
Wexford
31%
Draws
27%
Kerry
Draw rate projection: 31% Favored: Wexford

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Wexford picked up more points recently compared to Kerry.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.94 vs 1.25 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 77%
Over 2.5 Goals 48%
Over 3.5 Goals 29%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 58%
Wexford Clean Sheet 19%
Kerry Clean Sheet 16%
First Half Goal 69%
Second Half Goal 73%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Wexford Kerry
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 11 7
Draws 7 9
Losses 11 14
Goals Scored 1.21 1.13
Goals Conceded 1.34 1.73
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40
Possession % 53.5% 46.5%
Shots per Match 13.8 11.2
Shots on Target 4.8 3.6
Corners per Match 5.6 4.4
Yellow/Red Cards 1.8 2.2

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

15.05.26 Division 1
Kerry vs Wexford
2:1
13.03.26 Division 1
Wexford vs Kerry
1:1
10.10.25 Division 1
Kerry vs Wexford
0:2
27.06.25 Division 1
Wexford vs Kerry
4:3
16.05.25 Division 1
Kerry vs Wexford
1:1

Tactical Matchup Profile

Field Positions & Control Styles

Wexford

Pressing Intensity Medium Block
Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks
Wing Attack Frequency A lot of crosses
Defensive Alignment Sit deep
Strengths
  • Dangerous on corners
  • Overlap on the wings
  • Quick counters
Weaknesses
  • Vulnerable to counters
  • Weak in the air

Kerry

Pressing Intensity Passive low block (PPDA > 14)
Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks
Wing Attack Frequency Play through the middle
Defensive Alignment Sit deep
Strengths
  • Quick recovery
  • Solid midfield screen
  • Quick counters
Weaknesses
  • Fouling under pressure
  • Defending set pieces

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Wexford Compare

Top Goalscorer Key Forward
6 Goals
Assists Leader Midfield Maestro
4 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.58

Kerry Compare

Top Goalscorer Key Forward
9 Goals
Assists Leader Midfield Maestro
7 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.91

Availability Alerts

Key Defender Kerry • Hamstring Injury
Out Rating: 8.5
Starting Midfielder Wexford • Ankle Sprain
Doubtful Rating: 6.8
Backup Goalkeeper Kerry • Muscle strain
Out Rating: 3.2
Star Striker Wexford • Returning to training
Returning Rating: 9.4

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Wexford 42 / 100
Kerry 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Wexford Kerry

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Wexford or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +23.5%
2.94
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +14.2%
2.38
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Expected Match Flow Timeline

Dominance and pressure projections by 15-minute intervals

0' - 15' Dominance Index

Wexford will likely press early to force mistakes.

Wexford 59%
Kerry 37%
15' - 30' Dominance Index

Kerry should settle down and try to slow the pace.

Wexford 54%
Kerry 44%
30' - 45' Dominance Index

Both sides will look to break quickly before the half-time whistle.

Wexford 51%
Kerry 49%
45' - 60' Dominance Index

Tactical adjustments will show. Expect Wexford to push more players wide.

Wexford 56%
Kerry 44%
60' - 75' Dominance Index

Players will tire. Fresh legs from the bench will spark quicker counter-attacks.

Wexford 51%
Kerry 49%
75' - 90' Dominance Index

Late drama. Teams will take major risks depending on the scoreline.

Wexford 62%
Kerry 53%

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Wexford attacking → ← attacking Kerry

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Wexford have scored in 91% of their home games in the past 12 months.

Kerry concede most goals (45%) in the final 15 minutes of matches.

Meetings between these sides average 24 shots per game, well above the league median.

Wexford are unbeaten in 4 straight matches when scoring first.

Kerry have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 10 matches.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Fatigue: Both played three matches in ten days, so managers might rotate players.

Risk Factor

Incentive: Wexford wants a European spot, while Kerry is battling relegation.

Risk Factor

Cards: Historically tense game, a red card could change the whole setup.

Public Accuracy Dashboard

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Overall Accuracy 78.4%
BTTS Accuracy 73.1%
Over 2.5 Accuracy 75.6%
Correct Score Accuracy 18.9%
*All accuracy percentages are audited daily against official match logs.

Recent Predictions Log

Date Prediction Result Status
2026-07-05 Over 2.5 Goals 1-0 Lost
2026-07-01 Home Win (1) 2-0 Won
2026-06-27 Over 2.5 Goals 3-1 Won
2026-06-23 Home Win (1) 1-1 Lost
2026-06-19 Over 2.5 Goals 3-1 Won
2026-06-15 Home Win (1) 2-0 Won
2026-06-11 Over 2.5 Goals 1-0 Lost
2026-06-07 Home Win (1) 2-0 Won

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

40 Points in last 5 30
0.94 Goals expected (xG) 1.25
1.10 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.40
53.5% Ball possession % 46.5%
13.8 Shots per game 11.2
4.8 Shots on target 3.6
5.6 Corners per game 4.4
1.8 Cards per game 2.2