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Wolfsburg vs Holstein Kiel - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Germany Germany

DFB Pokal 2025/2026 Volkswagen Arena, Wolfsburg
Wolfsburg Logo

Wolfsburg

0 - 1
FT
Holstein Kiel Logo

Holstein Kiel

Our Tip

Match Events

4'
Zehnter A.
18'
Komenda M.
24'
Zec D.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Holstein Kiel in this DFB Pokal 2025/2026 tie, finishing 0-1. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Wolfsburg
30%
Draws
23%
Holstein Kiel
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Wolfsburg

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Wolfsburg have won more games recently than Holstein Kiel.
  • 47% — that's where the model lands on Wolfsburg taking it.
  • Wolfsburg have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Holstein Kiel, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.4%
Wolfsburg Clean Sheet 18%
Holstein Kiel Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Wolfsburg Holstein Kiel
Matches Played 29 27
Wins 10 9
Draws 7 7
Losses 12 11
Goals Scored 1.9 1.48
Goals Conceded 1.62 1.59
Expected Goals (xG) 2.06 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 28, 2025 DFB Pokal
Wolfsburg vs Holstein Kiel
0:1
Jan 24, 2025 Bundesliga
Wolfsburg vs Holstein Kiel
2:2
Aug 31, 2024 Bundesliga
Holstein Kiel vs Wolfsburg
0:2
Jul 14, 2021 Club Friendly
Wolfsburg vs Holstein Kiel
0:1
Aug 22, 2020 Club Friendly
Wolfsburg vs Holstein Kiel
2:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Wolfsburg 85 / 100
Holstein Kiel 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Wolfsburg Holstein Kiel

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Wolfsburg Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Holstein Kiel's defensive record shows goals conceded in 81% of 27 matches.

Wolfsburg scored in 69% of their last 29 games.

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Wolfsburg remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Wolfsburg VS Holstein Kiel
2.88 Goals Scored 1.13
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.25
63% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 38%
63% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Wolfsburg

(Home)
01 Oct
Wolfsburg
4 : 1
TSV Havelse
18 Sept
Wolfsburg
5 : 1
Darmstadt
12 Sept
St. Pauli
1 : 0
Wolfsburg
05 Sept
Wolfsburg
4 : 4
Energie Cottbus
29 Aug
Karlsruher
2 : 5
Wolfsburg
Page 1 of 6

Holstein Kiel

(Away)
03 Oct
Holstein Kiel
3 : 1
Viborg
19 Sept
Holstein Kiel
1 : 1
VfL Osnabruck
13 Sept
Heidenheim
1 : 0
Holstein Kiel
05 Sept
Holstein Kiel
2 : 2
Nurnberg
30 Aug
Magdeburg
2 : 0
Holstein Kiel
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/32-finals
Engers 0
Eintracht Frankfurt 5
RW Essen 0
Dortmund 1
FC Viktoria Koln 1
Paderborn 3
Sonnenhof Grossaspach 0
Bayer Leverkusen 4
Delmenhorst 2
B. Monchengladbach 3
Meuselwitz 0
Karlsruher 5
Eintracht Norderstedt 0
St. Pauli 1
Hansa Rostock 0
Hoffenheim 4
Gutersloh 0
Union Berlin 5
Arminia Bielefeld 1
Werder Bremen 0
Regensburg 1
1. FC Koln 2
Wehen 2
Bayern Munich 3
Energie Cottbus 1
Hannover 0
Sandhausen 2
RB Leipzig 4
Illertissen 4
Nurnberg 3
Saarbrucken 1
Magdeburg 3
Bahlinger 0
Heidenheim 5
Pirmasens 1
Hamburger 2
Hemelingen 0
Wolfsburg 9
FC 08 Homburg 0
Holstein Kiel 2
Hallescher 0
Augsburg 2
BFC Dynamo 1
Bochum 3
Dresden 0
Mainz 1
Braunschweig 4
VfB Stuttgart 5
Preussen Munster 0
Hertha Berlin 1
Ulm 0
Elversberg 1
Lohne 0
Greuther Furth 2
Rsv Eintracht 0
Kaiserslautern 7
1. FC Schweinfurt 2
Dusseldorf 4
Lotte 0
Freiburg 2
Lubeck 1
Darmstadt 2
Lokomotive Leipzig 0
Schalke 1
1/16-finals
Eintracht Frankfurt 1
Dortmund 2
Paderborn 2
Bayer Leverkusen 4
B. Monchengladbach 3
Karlsruher 1
St. Pauli 3
Hoffenheim 2
Union Berlin 2
Arminia Bielefeld 1
1. FC Koln 1
Bayern Munich 4
Energie Cottbus 1
RB Leipzig 4
Illertissen 0
Magdeburg 3
Heidenheim 0
Hamburger 1
Wolfsburg 0
Holstein Kiel 1
Augsburg 0
Bochum 1
Mainz 0
VfB Stuttgart 2
Hertha Berlin 3
Elversberg 0
Greuther Furth 0
Kaiserslautern 1
Dusseldorf 1
Freiburg 3
Darmstadt 4
Schalke 0
1/8-finals
Dortmund 0
Bayer Leverkusen 1
B. Monchengladbach 1
St. Pauli 2
Union Berlin 2
Bayern Munich 3
RB Leipzig 3
Magdeburg 1
Hamburger 1
Holstein Kiel 2
Bochum 0
VfB Stuttgart 2
Hertha Berlin 6
Kaiserslautern 1
Freiburg 2
Darmstadt 0
Quarter-finals
Bayer Leverkusen 3
St. Pauli 0
Bayern Munich 2
RB Leipzig 0
Holstein Kiel 0
VfB Stuttgart 3
Hertha Berlin 1
Freiburg 2
Semi-finals
Bayer Leverkusen 0
Bayern Munich 2
VfB Stuttgart 2
Freiburg 1
Final
Bayern Munich 3
VfB Stuttgart 0