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Xerez CD vs Ciudad de Lucena - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Spain Spain

Segunda RFEF - Group 4
Sun, Oct 18, 2026
VS
05:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Xerez CD host Ciudad de Lucena in the Segunda RFEF - Group 4. Don't expect fireworks — both sides lean defensive. Ciudad de Lucena have shipped 0.69 goals a game lately, while Xerez CD have conceded 0.62 and scored 0.83. Past meetings favor Ciudad de Lucena slightly — 0-3-2 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on May 1, 2024, ending 0:0. Model xG sits at 0.69 vs 0.88, favoring Ciudad de Lucena. Over 2.5 looks the sharpest market angle here.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

25%
Xerez CD
35%
Draws
40%
Ciudad de Lucena
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Ciudad de Lucena

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Ciudad de Lucena carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 66.2%
Xerez CD Clean Sheet 20%
Ciudad de Lucena Clean Sheet 20%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Xerez CD Ciudad de Lucena
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 12 19
Draws 11 6
Losses 6 4
Goals Scored 0.83 1.97
Goals Conceded 0.62 0.69
Expected Goals (xG) 0.69 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 1, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 10
Ciudad de Lucena vs Xerez CD
0:0
Dec 17, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 10
Xerez CD vs Ciudad de Lucena
1:1
Jan 22, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 10
Xerez CD vs Ciudad de Lucena
0:1
Sep 25, 2022 Tercera RFEF - Group 10
Ciudad de Lucena vs Xerez CD
2:1
May 7, 2022 Tercera RFEF - Group 10
Xerez CD vs Ciudad de Lucena
2:3

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Xerez CD 32 / 100
Ciudad de Lucena 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Xerez CD Ciudad de Lucena

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ciudad de Lucena Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Xerez CD scored in 62% of their last 29 games.

These sides typically produce 2.20 goals when they meet.

Xerez CD has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Ciudad de Lucena let in goals in 41% of their last 29 matches.

Scoring Trends

Xerez CD VS Ciudad de Lucena
0.75 Goals Scored 1.25
0.5 Goals Conceded 0.63
50% Over 1.5 63%
13% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Xerez CD

(Home)
04 Oct
Xerez CD
2 : 1
Tenerife B
27 Sept
Recreativo Huelva
1 : 0
Xerez CD
20 Sept
Xerez CD
0 : 0
Don Benito
13 Sept
Xerez CD
1 : 2
CD Badajoz
05 Sept
CD Estepona
0 : 0
Xerez CD
Page 1 of 6

Ciudad de Lucena

(Away)
04 Oct
Ciudad de Lucena
1 : 0
Puente Genil
27 Sept
Antoniano
0 : 3
Ciudad de Lucena
20 Sept
Ciudad de Lucena
1 : 2
Tenerife B
13 Sept
Mijas Las Lagunas
1 : 1
Ciudad de Lucena
06 Sept
Linares
1 : 1
Ciudad de Lucena
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Betis B 5 4 1 0 8:0 13
2 Recreativo Huelva 5 4 0 1 10:4 12
3 Don Benito 5 3 1 1 7:4 10
4 Tenerife B 5 3 0 2 9:7 9
5 Ciudad de Lucena 5 2 2 1 7:4 8
6 Sevilla B 5 2 2 1 8:6 8
7 CD Badajoz 5 2 2 1 6:5 8
8 CD Estepona 5 2 1 2 7:7 7
9 Linares 5 2 1 2 6:7 7
10 Mijas Las Lagunas 5 1 3 1 10:10 6
11 Sanluqueno 5 1 3 1 7:7 6
12 Atletico Central 5 2 0 3 6:8 6
13 Xerez CD 5 1 2 2 3:4 5
14 Marbella 5 1 2 2 6:8 5
15 Puente Genil 5 1 1 3 5:5 4
16 Las Palmas B 5 1 1 3 1:8 4
17 Tamaraceite 5 1 0 4 4:11 3
18 Antoniano 5 0 2 3 2:7 2
Promotion - Segunda RFEF - Group 1 (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation - Segunda RFEF - Group 1 (Play Out)