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Xerez Deportivo FC vs Melilla Prediction & H2H Stats

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Segunda RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026
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Match Events

57' Event
Lorenzo O.
84' Event
Udom E.
90' Event
Udom E.

AI Match Summary

Xerez Deportivo FC in this Segunda RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Xerez Deportivo FC.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Xerez Deportivo FC
15%
Draws
54%
Melilla
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Melilla

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

54% / Medium Confidence
  • Melilla average 1.17 goals a game right now, well clear of Xerez Deportivo FC's 0.97.
  • Win probability leans Melilla's way, sitting at 60%.
  • Regular Segunda RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
Xerez Deportivo FC Clean Sheet 16%
Melilla Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Xerez Deportivo FC Melilla
Matches Played 32 29
Wins 9 9
Draws 10 9
Losses 13 11
Goals Scored 0.97 1.17
Goals Conceded 1.13 1.03
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 15, 2026 Segunda RFEF - Group 4
Xerez Deportivo FC vs Melilla
2:1
Nov 16, 2025 Segunda RFEF - Group 4
Melilla vs Xerez Deportivo FC
1:1
Sep 25, 2024 Copa Federacion
Melilla vs Xerez Deportivo FC
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Xerez Deportivo FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Udom E.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Melilla Compare

Top Goalscorer Lorenzo O.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Xerez Deportivo FC 19 / 100
Melilla 68 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Xerez Deportivo FC Melilla

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Melilla Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Melilla's defensive record shows goals conceded in 69% of 29 matches.

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Xerez Deportivo FC stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Attacking prowess: Xerez Deportivo FC scored in 59% of their last 32 outings.

Scoring Trends

Xerez Deportivo FC VS Melilla
1.38 Goals Scored 1.75
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.38
63% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Xerez Deportivo FC

(Home)
27 Sept
Betis C
2 : 0
Xerez Deportivo FC
19 Sept
Xerez Deportivo FC
1 : 0
Bollullos
13 Sept
Sevilla C
2 : 3
Xerez Deportivo FC
06 Sept
Xerez Deportivo FC
0 : 1
Portuense
25 Aug
Xerez Deportivo FC
1 : 1
Lion City Sailors
Page 1 of 7

Melilla

(Away)
27 Sept
Melilla
2 : 0
Malaga Juniors
20 Sept
Torre del Mar
1 : 2
Melilla
12 Sept
Melilla
3 : 0
Huetor Vega
09 Sept
Melilla
0 : 1
Conil
05 Sept
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
1 : 2
Melilla
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 CD Extremadura 34 17 12 5 54:38 63
2 Deportiva Minera 34 19 6 9 50:33 63
3 Aguilas FC 34 18 7 9 45:25 61
4 Xerez CD 34 17 8 9 32:24 59
5 Jaen 34 16 10 8 43:33 58
6 Recreativo Huelva 34 16 9 9 41:25 57
7 UCAM Murcia 34 16 7 11 49:41 55
8 Linares 34 11 14 9 42:45 47
9 La Union (Malacitano) 34 13 6 15 44:43 45
10 Lorca Deportiva 34 12 9 13 32:36 45
11 Yeclano 34 12 8 14 33:33 44
12 Antoniano 34 12 8 14 38:40 44
13 CD Estepona 34 12 8 14 40:44 44
14 Puente Genil 34 10 10 14 28:37 40
15 Xerez Deportivo FC 34 8 12 14 34:43 36
16 Melilla 34 7 13 14 36:40 34
17 Almeria B 34 4 9 21 26:53 21
18 Malaga B 34 5 6 23 32:66 21
Promotion - Segunda RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026 (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation - Segunda RFEF - Group 2 2025/2026 (Play Out)