Sport Picks

Stadium Background

XV de Jau vs EC Sao Bernardo

Brazil Brazil

Paulista A3
Our Tip

Match Events

40' Event
Ardley
85' Event
de Paula Mercedes V.

AI Match Summary

The Paulista A3 game between XV de Jau and EC Sao Bernardo finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward XV de Jau.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

53%
XV de Jau
15%
Draws
32%
EC Sao Bernardo
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: XV de Jau

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

53% / Medium Confidence
  • XV de Jau have managed 0.93 goals a game lately — EC Sao Bernardo are scoring more at 1.3.
  • Model gives XV de Jau a 53% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 71.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26%
XV de Jau Clean Sheet 68%
EC Sao Bernardo Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric XV de Jau EC Sao Bernardo
Matches Played 30 33
Wins 13 13
Draws 8 9
Losses 9 11
Goals Scored 0.93 1.3
Goals Conceded 0.73 1.03
Expected Goals (xG) 1.52 1.16
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 4, 2026 Paulista A3
XV de Jau vs EC Sao Bernardo
2:0
Jan 26, 2025 Paulista A3
EC Sao Bernardo vs XV de Jau
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

XV de Jau Compare

Top Goalscorer Ardley
1 Goals
Assists Leader de Paula Mercedes V.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.17
Avg xA / game 0.76

EC Sao Bernardo Compare

Avg xG / game 1.05
Avg xA / game 0.64

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

XV de Jau 50 / 100
EC Sao Bernardo 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
XV de Jau EC Sao Bernardo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick XV de Jau Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: EC Sao Bernardo conceded in 67% of 33 recent games.

These sides typically produce 1.50 goals when they meet.

XV de Jau went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

EC Sao Bernardo lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

XV de Jau VS EC Sao Bernardo
1.29 Goals Scored 1.75
0.57 Goals Conceded 1.75
43% Over 1.5 100%
29% Over 2.5 88%
14% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

XV de Jau

(Home)
18 Apr
Marilia
3 : 2
XV de Jau
12 Apr
XV de Jau
0 : 0
Marilia
05 Apr
XV de Jau
2 : 0
Rio Claro
28 Mar
Rio Claro
0 : 1
XV de Jau
21 Mar
Desportivo
1 : 2
XV de Jau
Page 1 of 6

EC Sao Bernardo

(Away)
05 Sept
EC Sao Bernardo
2 : 1
Comercial
31 Aug
Comercial
2 : 0
EC Sao Bernardo
22 Aug
Santo Andre
1 : 0
EC Sao Bernardo
15 Aug
EC Sao Bernardo
2 : 3
Sao Jose EC
09 Aug
EC Sao Bernardo
2 : 0
Sao Caetano
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Portuguesa Santista 15 12 0 3 26:9 36
2 Marilia 15 9 5 1 23:6 32
3 Rio Preto EC 15 8 5 2 24:13 29
4 XV de Jau 15 8 3 4 16:11 27
5 Rio Claro 15 7 4 4 19:16 25
6 Uniao Barbarense 15 6 6 3 16:14 24
7 EC Sao Bernardo 15 6 5 4 22:15 23
8 Paulista 15 6 5 4 20:13 23
9 Uniao Sao Joao 15 6 4 5 16:15 22
10 Catanduva FC 15 5 6 4 16:15 21
11 Bandeirante 15 4 6 5 15:19 18
12 Rio Branco SP 15 4 4 7 13:24 16
13 Francana 15 3 1 11 13:22 10
14 Itapirense 15 2 3 10 14:26 9
15 Desportivo 15 1 5 9 8:25 8
16 Uniao Suzano 15 1 2 12 10:28 5
Promotion - Paulista A3 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Paulista A4 2027 (Main)