Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Yambol 1915 vs Nesebar

Bulgaria Bulgaria

Third League - South-East 2025/2026
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Nesebar in this Third League - South-East 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Nesebar.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
Yambol 1915
15%
Draws
39%
Nesebar
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Yambol 1915

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Nesebar have won more games recently than Yambol 1915.
  • Yambol 1915 are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • Regular Third League - South-East 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Nesebar here — 5 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
Yambol 1915 Clean Sheet 16%
Nesebar Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Yambol 1915 Nesebar
Matches Played 29 31
Wins 17 20
Draws 7 7
Losses 5 4
Goals Scored 2.14 2.84
Goals Conceded 1.14 0.84
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 9, 2026 Third League - South-East
Yambol 1915 vs Nesebar
1:3
Nov 1, 2025 Third League - South-East
Nesebar vs Yambol 1915
3:1
Apr 28, 2024 Third League - South-East
Yambol 1915 vs Nesebar
0:3
Oct 14, 2023 Third League - South-East
Nesebar vs Yambol 1915
5:1
Apr 22, 2023 Third League - South-East
Nesebar vs Yambol 1915
3:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Yambol 1915 48 / 100
Nesebar 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Yambol 1915 Nesebar

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Yambol 1915 Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Yambol 1915 found the back of the net in 90% of recent matches (29 games).

H2H data points to 4.00 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Yambol 1915 stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Nesebar's defensive record shows goals conceded in 55% of 31 matches.

Scoring Trends

Yambol 1915 VS Nesebar
2.63 Goals Scored 1.88
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.38
88% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 38%
50% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Yambol 1915

(Home)
12 Sept
Yambol 1915
2 : 1
Dimitrovgrad
05 Sept
Levski Karlovo
1 : 5
Yambol 1915
29 Aug
Yambol 1915
5 : 1
Rodopa Smolyan
22 Aug
Spartak Plovdiv
3 : 1
Yambol 1915
15 Aug
Yambol 1915
3 : 0
Maritsa Plovdiv
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Nesebar

(Away)
06 Sept
Nesebar
2 : 1
Rilski Sportist
02 Sept
Marek
1 : 0
Nesebar
29 Aug
Nesebar
1 : 1
Yantra Gabrovo
23 Aug
Nesebar
7 : 0
Pirin Blagoevgrad
16 Aug
Svoge
0 : 1
Nesebar
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Nesebar 36 29 4 3 116:22 91
2 Maritsa Plovdiv 36 23 6 7 90:40 75
3 Neftochimic Burgas 36 19 9 8 53:39 66
4 Yambol 1915 36 20 6 10 72:41 66
5 Levski Karlovo 36 20 5 11 64:53 65
6 Maritsa Milevo 36 17 9 10 64:32 60
7 Spartak Plovdiv 36 15 9 12 64:58 54
8 Sozopol 36 16 6 14 50:38 54
9 OFC Haskovo 36 15 7 14 52:48 52
10 Zagorets 36 13 10 13 52:60 49
11 Rozova Dolina 36 14 6 16 45:52 48
12 Gigant Saedinenie 36 14 5 17 56:59 47
13 Rodopa Smolyan 36 14 4 18 51:70 46
14 Atletik Kuklen 36 13 3 20 43:78 42
15 Sekirovo Rakovski 36 9 8 19 30:53 35
16 Dimitrovgrad 36 10 5 21 42:82 35
17 Lok. Plovdiv II 36 9 6 21 44:53 33
18 Rakovski 2011 36 8 3 25 46:94 27
19 Asenovets 36 6 5 25 30:92 23
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