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Yelimay Semey vs Atyrau

Kazakhstan Kazakhstan

Premier League Stadion Spartak
Our Tip

Match Events

18' Event
Henrique
22'
Dzhumatov R.
22' Event
Murtazaev R.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

The Premier League game between Yelimay Semey and Atyrau finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Atyrau.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Yelimay Semey
40%
Draws
29%
Atyrau
Draw rate projection: 40% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • Yelimay Semey carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 40%.
  • Regular Premier League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35.6%
Yelimay Semey Clean Sheet 68%
Atyrau Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Yelimay Semey Atyrau
Matches Played 28 26
Wins 13 6
Draws 6 11
Losses 9 9
Goals Scored 1.5 0.75
Goals Conceded 1.38 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.38 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 12, 2026 Premier League
Atyrau vs Yelimay Semey
0:0
Jun 21, 2026 Premier League
Yelimay Semey vs Atyrau
1:2
Oct 26, 2025 Premier League
Yelimay Semey vs Atyrau
3:2
Mar 1, 2025 Premier League
Atyrau vs Yelimay Semey
2:1
Oct 26, 2024 Premier League
Atyrau vs Yelimay Semey
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Yelimay Semey Compare

Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Atyrau Compare

Top Goalscorer Henrique
1 Goals
Assists Leader Tkachenko Y.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Yelimay Semey 42 / 100
Atyrau 40 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Yelimay Semey Atyrau

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Yelimay Semey scored in 86% of their last 28 games.

Atyrau let in goals in 65% of their last 26 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.40 goals per match.

Yelimay Semey has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Yelimay Semey VS Atyrau
1.5 Goals Scored 0.75
1.38 Goals Conceded 1
75% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 25%
38% Over 3.5 0%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Ordabasy17124130:1240
2Kairat Almaty18116134:1239
3FC Astana1785425:1929
4Okzhetpes1776422:2427
5Yelimay Semey1675424:1926
6Ulytau1775514:1526
7Aktobe1774622:1825
8Zhenis1756614:1921
9Atyrau1639412:1318
10Zhetysu Taldykorgan1746721:2518
11Tobol1753919:2518
12Kaisar Kyzylorda1839613:2018
13Kaspij Aktau17521015:2217
14Altai1737712:1816
15Kyzylzhar17431017:2515
16Ertis Pavlodar1718814:2211