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Yelimay Semey W vs Tobol W

Kazakhstan Kazakhstan

League Women 2025
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Yelimay Semey W play Tobol W in the League Women 2025. Yelimay Semey W are favorites here. Recently, Yelimay Semey W averaged 2.93 goals scored and 1.76 conceded. Tobol W averaged 1.14 goals scored and 4.03 conceded. In past meetings, Yelimay Semey W won 2, Tobol W won 1, and they drew 0. Their last match on May 5, 2026 ended 0:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 2.88 for Yelimay Semey W and 1.50 for Tobol W. This points to a Yelimay Semey W double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

58%
Yelimay Semey W
15%
Draws
27%
Tobol W
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Yelimay Semey W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

84% / High Confidence
  • Yelimay Semey W picked up more points recently compared to Tobol W.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (2.88 vs 1.50 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 72%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 89%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 72%
Over 3.5 Goals 43%
Over 4.5 Goals 22%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31%
Yelimay Semey W Clean Sheet 16%
Tobol W Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 74%
Second Half Goal 78%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Yelimay Semey W Tobol W
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 18 9
Draws 2 3
Losses 9 17
Goals Scored 2.93 1.14
Goals Conceded 1.76 4.03
Expected Goals (xG) 2.88 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.63 2.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 5, 2026 League Women
Yelimay Semey W vs Tobol W
0:1
Sep 8, 2025 League Women
Yelimay Semey W vs Tobol W
1:0
Jun 16, 2025 League Women
Tobol W vs Yelimay Semey W
0:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Yelimay Semey W Compare

Top Goalscorer Mamyrova A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 2.22
Avg xA / game 1.44

Tobol W Compare

Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Yelimay Semey W 55 / 100
Tobol W 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Yelimay Semey W Tobol W

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Yelimay Semey W Win (1)
Secondary Pick Yelimay Semey W & Over 2.5
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +16%
2.00
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +9.4%
1.52
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Yelimay Semey W attacking → ← attacking Tobol W

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Yelimay Semey W scored in 79% of their last 29 games.

Tobol W let in goals in 76% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Yelimay Semey W went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Tobol W lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

56 Points in last 5 30
2.88 Goals expected (xG) 1.38
1.63 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.88

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Aktobe W262420225:574
2BIIK Shymkent W262321252:971
3Tomiris-Turan W261943107:2061
4Kyzylzhar W26161969:3949
5Yelimay Semey W26153867:5248
6Kairat W261511066:5646
7Ulytau W261241047:5440
8Zhenis Astana W261131251:6336
9FC Astana W26851346:5529
10Kaisar Kyzylorda W26841445:6328
11Tobol W26651527:11123
12Zhetysu W26422024:10414
13Atyrau W26212327:1817
14Okzhetpes W2601255:2461