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Yverdon vs Etoile-Carouge

Switzerland Switzerland

Challenge League 2025/2026 Stade Municipal, Yverdon-les-Bains
Our Tip

Match Events

6' Event
Marchesano A.
Assist: Chappuis A.
11' Event
Marchesano A.
25'
Neves D.

AI Match Summary

The Challenge League 2025/2026 game between Yverdon and Etoile-Carouge finished 3-5, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Etoile-Carouge.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
Yverdon
20%
Draws
38%
Etoile-Carouge
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Yverdon

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

67% / Medium Confidence
  • Yverdon carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Yverdon are the model's pick here, at 42%.
  • Regular Challenge League 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
Yverdon Clean Sheet 20%
Etoile-Carouge Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Yverdon Etoile-Carouge
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 14 10
Draws 6 8
Losses 8 11
Goals Scored 1.63 1.25
Goals Conceded 1.75 2.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.75 2.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 3, 2026 Challenge League
Yverdon vs Etoile-Carouge
3:5
Feb 20, 2026 Challenge League
Etoile-Carouge vs Yverdon
2:2
Nov 30, 2025 Challenge League
Yverdon vs Etoile-Carouge
2:0
Sep 12, 2025 Challenge League
Etoile-Carouge vs Yverdon
2:1
Jan 12, 2025 Club Friendly
Yverdon vs Etoile-Carouge
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Yverdon Compare

Top Goalscorer Marchesano A.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Saiz F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Etoile-Carouge Compare

Top Goalscorer Escorza T.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Bouchlarhem T.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Yverdon 42 / 100
Etoile-Carouge 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Yverdon Etoile-Carouge

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.40 goals when they meet.

Attacking prowess: Yverdon scored in 79% of their last 28 outings.

Defensive concern: Etoile-Carouge conceded in 76% of 29 recent games.

Yverdon has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Yverdon VS Etoile-Carouge
1.63 Goals Scored 1.25
1.75 Goals Conceded 2.5
75% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 75%
50% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Yverdon

(Home)
24 Jul
Winterthur
2 : 2
Yverdon
18 Jul
Lausanne
3 : 0
Yverdon
12 Jul
Yverdon
1 : 3
Sion
08 Jul
Basel
0 : 3
Yverdon
03 Jul
Biel
0 : 0
Yverdon
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Etoile-Carouge

(Away)
24 Jul
Etoile-Carouge
3 : 0
Aarau
18 Jul
Young Boys
5 : 0
Etoile-Carouge
11 Jul
Servette
1 : 2
Etoile-Carouge
04 Jul
Lausanne
1 : 0
Etoile-Carouge
01 Jul
Etoile-Carouge
0 : 1
Grand-Saconnex
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Vaduz36256575:4181
2Aarau36255677:4780
3Yverdon36207975:4867
4Lausanne Ouchy361481459:5150
5Xamax361471555:5649
6Rapperswil-Jona361422052:6244
7Etoile-Carouge3610101646:5440
8Wil3610101639:5540
9Stade Nyonnais365131833:6028
10Bellinzona36582340:7723
Promotion - Super League (Main)
Promotion - Super League 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - Promotion League (Main)