Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Zalgiris vs Dziugas Telsiai

Lithuania Lithuania

TOPLYGA LFF stadionas, Vilnius
Sun, Aug 23, 2026
1 - 0
04:30 PM
Our Tip

Match Events

18'
Vareika M.
23'
Kendysh Y.
41'
Sub
Silva A. In: Vinckus D.
Out: Silva A.

AI Match Summary

Zalgiris host Dziugas Telsiai in the TOPLYGA. Little to choose between these two on current form. Recent numbers: Zalgiris at 1.63 goals for, 1.53 against; Dziugas Telsiai at 1.41 for, 1.07 against. Past meetings favor Zalgiris slightly — 3-1-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Jun 28, 2026, ending 0:0. xG projections (1.88 - 1.06) back Dziugas Telsiai to edge this. The prediction model leans Draw; both defenses could hold firm.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Zalgiris
15%
Draws
46%
Dziugas Telsiai
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Dziugas Telsiai

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Dziugas Telsiai lately — more wins on the board than Zalgiris.
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.8%
Zalgiris Clean Sheet 20%
Dziugas Telsiai Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Zalgiris Dziugas Telsiai
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 13 14
Draws 5 7
Losses 12 8
Goals Scored 1.63 1.41
Goals Conceded 1.53 1.07
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 28, 2026 TOPLYGA
Dziugas Telsiai vs Zalgiris
0:0
Apr 26, 2026 TOPLYGA
Dziugas Telsiai vs Zalgiris
0:3
Feb 21, 2026 TOPLYGA
Zalgiris vs Dziugas Telsiai
2:3
Oct 5, 2025 TOPLYGA
Dziugas Telsiai vs Zalgiris
1:2
Jul 19, 2025 TOPLYGA
Zalgiris vs Dziugas Telsiai
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Zalgiris Compare

Top Goalscorer Lytvynenko I.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Dziugas Telsiai Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Zalgiris 32 / 100
Dziugas Telsiai 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Zalgiris Dziugas Telsiai

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Zalgiris found the back of the net in 70% of recent matches (30 games).

These sides typically produce 2.60 goals when they meet.

Dziugas Telsiai has conceded goals in 55% of their last 29 outings.

Zalgiris has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Zalgiris VS Dziugas Telsiai
2.63 Goals Scored 0.88
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.13
88% Over 1.5 50%
88% Over 2.5 25%
50% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Zalgiris

(Home)
16 Aug
Zalgiris
2 : 3
Banga
13 Aug
Hajduk Split
4 : 0
Zalgiris
06 Aug
Zalgiris
2 : 5
Hajduk Split
30 Jul
Zalgiris
7 : 2
Dinamo Tbilisi
27 Jul
FC Hegelmann
2 : 3
Zalgiris
Page 1 of 6

Dziugas Telsiai

(Away)
17 Aug
Dziugas Telsiai
0 : 2
Suduva
09 Aug
FA Siauliai
3 : 4
Dziugas Telsiai
03 Aug
FK Panevezys
1 : 1
Dziugas Telsiai
26 Jul
Transinvest
1 : 0
Dziugas Telsiai
19 Jul
Dziugas Telsiai
1 : 0
Banga
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Suduva 22 10 9 3 31:17 39
2 FK Kauno Zalgiris 22 10 8 4 41:16 38
3 Dziugas Telsiai 24 10 7 7 34:29 37
4 Banga 23 10 6 7 28:21 36
5 Transinvest 24 10 6 8 33:32 36
6 Zalgiris 22 10 4 8 35:27 34
7 FK Panevezys 23 6 5 12 21:39 23
8 FC Hegelmann 24 4 10 10 26:41 22
9 FA Siauliai 24 3 7 14 23:50 16
10 Riteriai 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - TOPLYGA (Relegation)
Relegation - I Lyga 2027 (Main)