Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Zambia U23 vs Malawi U23

Africa Africa

Africa Cup of Nations U23 2019
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

This match ends 1-0, with Zambia U23 advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Zambia U23
20%
Draws
40%
Malawi U23
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Zambia U23 come out ahead of Malawi U23 on wins alone.
  • Model gives Zambia U23 a 36% chance of winning this.
  • Zambia U23 have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Zambia U23, who have won 1 of the last 3 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Zambia U23 here — 2 wins from the last 3 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.6%
Zambia U23 Clean Sheet 20%
Malawi U23 Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Zambia U23 Malawi U23
Matches Played 17 5
Wins 5 2
Draws 5 1
Losses 7 2
Goals Scored 0.94 1.8
Goals Conceded 1.18 1.2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.17 1.17
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 24, 2019 Africa Cup of Nations U23
Zambia U23 vs Malawi U23
1:0
Mar 20, 2019 Africa Cup of Nations U23
Malawi U23 vs Zambia U23
0:1
Oct 4, 2011 Friendly International
Malawi U23 vs Zambia U23
2:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Zambia U23 36 / 100
Malawi U23 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Zambia U23 Malawi U23

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Malawi U23 conceded in 100% of 5 recent games.

Zambia U23 scored in 65% of their last 17 games.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Zambia U23 stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Zambia U23 VS Malawi U23
1.5 Goals Scored 0.83
1.5 Goals Conceded 0.83
63% Over 1.5 33%
63% Over 2.5 33%
38% Over 3.5 33%

Recent Form & Match History

Zambia U23

(Home)
31 Mar
Zimbabwe
1 : 0
Zambia U23
28 Mar
Zambia U23
1 : 0
Malawi
26 Mar
Zambia U23
0 : 0
Egypt U23
22 Mar
Egypt U23
2 : 0
Zambia U23
29 Oct
Zambia U23
1 : 0
Sierra Leone U23
Page 1 of 4

Malawi U23

(Away)
24 Mar
Zambia U23
1 : 0
Malawi U23
20 Mar
Malawi U23
0 : 1
Zambia U23
31 May
Malawi U23
3 : 1
Gabon U23
04 Oct
Malawi U23
2 : 2
Zambia U23
22 Sept
Malawi U23
4 : 1
Uganda U23

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Angola U23 1
South Africa U23 6
Mozambique U23 0
Zimbabwe U23 2
Malawi U23 0
Zambia U23 2
Burundi U23 1
Congo U23 2
Ghana U23 4
Gabon U23 0
Equatorial Guinea U23 1
Algeria U23 3
Cameroon U23 -
Sierra Leone U23 -
South Sudan U23 0
Tunisia U23 1
Niger U23 2
Ivory Coast U23 8
Guinea U23 2
Senegal U23 1
Sudan U23 2
Kenya U23 0
Libya U23 2
Nigeria U23 4
D.R. Congo U23 0
Morocco U23 6
Ethiopia U23 1
Mali U23 5
Final
South Africa U23 5
Zimbabwe U23 0
Zambia U23 5
Congo U23 4
Ghana U23 2
Algeria U23 1
Cameroon U23 2
Tunisia U23 2
Ivory Coast U23 2
Guinea U23 2
Sudan U23 1
Nigeria U23 5
Morocco U23 1
Mali U23 2