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Zambia vs Burundi - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Africa Africa

Africa Cup of Nations
Zambia Logo

Zambia

Wed, Nov 11, 2026
VS
05:00 PM
Burundi Logo

Burundi

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

A one-off knockout match in the Africa Cup of Nations. Little to choose between these two on current form. Burundi have shipped 1.24 goals a game lately, while Zambia have conceded 1.57 and scored 1.18. Head-to-head, Zambia have won 2 to Burundi's 0, with 3 draws. They last met on Nov 18, 2025, ending 0:0. Model xG sits at 0.88 vs 1.13, favoring Zambia. The model's pick is Away (2) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
Zambia
20%
Draws
51%
Burundi
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Burundi

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Burundi haven't matched Zambia's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Burundi's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Zambia have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Zambia, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 60.6%
Zambia Clean Sheet 20%
Burundi Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Zambia Burundi
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 10 8
Draws 4 5
Losses 14 16
Goals Scored 1.18 1.03
Goals Conceded 1.57 1.24
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 18, 2025 Friendly International
Burundi vs Zambia
0:0
Dec 8, 2013 CECAFA Championship
Zambia vs Burundi
1:0
Dec 1, 2013 CECAFA Championship
Zambia vs Burundi
1:0
Nov 30, 2010 CECAFA Championship
Zambia vs Burundi
0:0
Jan 4, 2009 Friendly International
Burundi vs Zambia
1:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Zambia 10 / 100
Burundi 84 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Zambia Burundi

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Burundi Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Zambia scored in 61% of their last 28 games.

Burundi let in goals in 69% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 0.80 goals.

Solid form: Zambia remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Zambia VS Burundi
0.63 Goals Scored 1
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.13
50% Over 1.5 50%
25% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Zambia

(Home)
29 Sept
Zambia
2 : 0
Togo
25 Sept
Algeria
3 : 1
Zambia
31 Mar
Argentina
5 : 0
Zambia
29 Dec
Zambia
0 : 3
Morocco
26 Dec
Zambia
0 : 0
Comoros
Page 1 of 6

Burundi

(Away)
29 Sept
Burundi
2 : 2
Algeria
25 Sept
Togo
1 : 0
Burundi
26 May
Morocco
5 : 0
Burundi
31 Mar
Burundi
4 : 0
Chad
27 Mar
Chad
0 : 4
Burundi
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Morocco 2 2 0 0 4:0 6
2 Gabon 2 1 0 1 2:2 3
3 Niger 2 1 0 1 2:3 3
4 Lesotho 2 0 0 2 1:4 0
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Egypt 2 1 1 0 5:0 4
2 Angola 2 1 1 0 3:1 4
3 Malawi 2 1 0 1 3:4 3
4 South Sudan 2 0 0 2 1:7 0
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Ivory Coast 2 2 0 0 4:0 6
2 Gambia 2 2 0 0 6:3 6
3 Somalia 2 0 0 2 1:4 0
4 Ghana 2 0 0 2 2:6 0
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 South Africa 2 2 0 0 7:1 6
2 Guinea 2 1 0 1 2:2 3
3 Eritrea 2 0 1 1 1:6 1
4 Kenya 2 0 1 1 1:2 1
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 5)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 D.R. Congo 2 2 0 0 4:1 6
2 Zimbabwe 2 1 0 1 4:4 3
3 Equatorial Guinea 2 1 0 1 1:2 3
4 Sierra Leone 2 0 0 2 2:4 0
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 6)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Benin 2 1 1 0 3:2 4
2 Burkina Faso 2 1 1 0 2:1 4
3 Mauritania 2 1 0 1 4:3 3
4 Central Africa 2 0 0 2 1:4 0
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 7)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Cameroon 2 1 1 0 4:2 4
2 Comoros 2 1 0 1 2:3 3
3 Namibia 2 1 0 1 1:1 3
4 Congo 2 0 1 1 1:2 1
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 8)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Uganda 2 1 1 0 2:1 4
2 Botswana 2 0 2 0 4:4 2
3 Tunisia 2 0 2 0 3:3 2
4 Libya 2 0 1 1 2:3 1
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 9)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Algeria 2 1 1 0 5:3 4
2 Zambia 2 1 0 1 3:3 3
3 Togo 2 1 0 1 1:2 3
4 Burundi 2 0 1 1 2:3 1
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 10)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Senegal 2 1 1 0 2:1 4
2 Mozambique 2 1 1 0 5:2 4
3 Sudan 2 1 0 1 2:4 3
4 Ethiopia 2 0 0 2 0:2 0
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 11)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Rwanda 2 2 0 0 5:2 6
2 Mali 2 2 0 0 4:1 6
3 Cape Verde 2 0 0 2 2:5 0
4 Liberia 2 0 0 2 1:4 0
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 12)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Guinea Bissau 2 2 0 0 5:0 6
2 Nigeria 2 1 0 1 2:4 3
3 Tanzania 2 0 1 1 1:3 1
4 Madagascar 2 0 1 1 2:3 1
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)