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Zenit St Petersburg vs Spartak Moscow - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Russia Russia

Super Cup Sovcombank Arena, Nizhny Novgorod
Zenit St Petersburg Logo

Zenit St Petersburg

Sat, Jul 18, 2026
2 - 1
04:30 PM
Spartak Moscow Logo

Spartak Moscow

Our Tip

Match Events

25' Event
Martins C.
38'
Fernandes G.
46'
Sub
Drkusic V. In: Jhon Jhon
Out: Drkusic V.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 2-1. The second leg ended 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Zenit St Petersburg
15%
Draws
34%
Spartak Moscow
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Zenit St Petersburg

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Spartak Moscow haven't matched Zenit St Petersburg's recent run of results.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • Zenit St Petersburg have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Zenit St Petersburg, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Zenit St Petersburg Clean Sheet 68%
Spartak Moscow Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Zenit St Petersburg Spartak Moscow
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 22 16
Draws 3 5
Losses 4 7
Goals Scored 1.9 1.61
Goals Conceded 0.66 0.96
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 23, 2026 Premier League
Spartak Moscow vs Zenit St Petersburg
2:0
Jul 18, 2026 Super Cup
Zenit St Petersburg vs Spartak Moscow
2:1
Apr 8, 2026 Russian Cup
Zenit St Petersburg vs Spartak Moscow
0:1
Mar 14, 2026 Premier League
Zenit St Petersburg vs Spartak Moscow
2:0
Aug 16, 2025 Premier League
Spartak Moscow vs Zenit St Petersburg
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Zenit St Petersburg Compare

Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Spartak Moscow Compare

Top Goalscorer Martins C.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Zenit St Petersburg 41 / 100
Spartak Moscow 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Zenit St Petersburg Spartak Moscow

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Zenit St Petersburg Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Zenit St Petersburg scored in 90% of their last 29 outings.

Solid form: Zenit St Petersburg remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

Defensive concern: Spartak Moscow conceded in 68% of 28 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.40 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Zenit St Petersburg VS Spartak Moscow
1.5 Goals Scored 1.63
0.88 Goals Conceded 0.88
63% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Zenit St Petersburg

(Home)
10 Oct
Krasnodar
2 : 3
Zenit St Petersburg
04 Oct
Zenit St Petersburg
1 : 0
BATE
27 Sept
Shanghai Shenhua
0 : 1
Zenit St Petersburg
16 Sept
Baltika
2 : 3
Zenit St Petersburg
12 Sept
Zenit St Petersburg
2 : 1
Lokomotiv Moscow
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Spartak Moscow

(Away)
10 Oct
Krylya Sovetov Samara
1 : 1
Spartak Moscow
16 Sept
Spartak Moscow
1 : 0
Fakel Voronezh
13 Sept
Spartak Moscow
3 : 0
FK Rostov
06 Sept
Dynamo Moscow
2 : 1
Spartak Moscow
02 Sept
Spartak Moscow
3 : 1
Rodina Moscow
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Final
Zenit St Petersburg 2
Spartak Moscow 1