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Zestafoni vs Bakhmaro Chokhatauri

Georgia Georgia

Liga 3 2024
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Zestafoni play Bakhmaro Chokhatauri in the Liga 3 2024. It looks like a close match. Recently, Zestafoni averaged 1.13 goals scored and 1.67 conceded. Bakhmaro Chokhatauri averaged 0.53 goals scored and 2.47 conceded. In past meetings, Zestafoni won 2, Bakhmaro Chokhatauri won 2, and they drew 1. Their last match on Oct 10, 2024 ended 1:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.92 for Zestafoni and 0.61 for Bakhmaro Chokhatauri. This points to a Zestafoni double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

55%
Zestafoni
23%
Draws
22%
Bakhmaro Chokhatauri
Draw rate projection: 23% Favored: Zestafoni

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Zestafoni picked up more points recently compared to Bakhmaro Chokhatauri.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.92 vs 0.61 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 89%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 52%
Over 3.5 Goals 31%
Over 4.5 Goals 16%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 46%
Zestafoni Clean Sheet 29%
Bakhmaro Chokhatauri Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 68%
Second Half Goal 71%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Zestafoni Bakhmaro Chokhatauri
Matches Played 30 32
Wins 6 3
Draws 11 4
Losses 13 25
Goals Scored 1.13 0.53
Goals Conceded 1.67 2.47

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 10, 2024 Liga 3
Zestafoni vs Bakhmaro Chokhatauri
1:0
Apr 18, 2024 Liga 3
Bakhmaro Chokhatauri vs Zestafoni
2:0
Oct 5, 2023 Liga 3
Bakhmaro Chokhatauri vs Zestafoni
1:1
May 9, 2023 Liga 3
Zestafoni vs Bakhmaro Chokhatauri
1:0
Sep 30, 2022 Liga 3
Bakhmaro Chokhatauri vs Zestafoni
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Zestafoni Compare

Top Goalscorer Bolotashvili D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0
Avg xA / game 0

Bakhmaro Chokhatauri Compare

Avg xG / game 0.12
Avg xA / game 0.07

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Zestafoni 55 / 100
Bakhmaro Chokhatauri 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Zestafoni Bakhmaro Chokhatauri

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Zestafoni Win (1)
Secondary Pick Zestafoni & Over 2.5
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +17.1%
2.13
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +12.8%
2.17
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Zestafoni attacking → ← attacking Bakhmaro Chokhatauri

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Zestafoni scored in 77% of their last 30 games.

Bakhmaro Chokhatauri let in goals in 84% of their last 32 matches.

Games between these two average 1.40 goals.

Zestafoni went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Bakhmaro Chokhatauri lost 5 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

29 Points in last 5 13
0.00 Goals expected (xG) 0.13
0.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.63

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Gonio30204681:3664
2Meshakhte Tkibuli30186654:2260
3Merani Martvili30177660:3058
4Iberia 1999 2301510552:2655
5Orbi30159650:3254
6Gori30158749:2253
7Merani Tbilisi301110949:4243
8Betlemi Keda301251349:6141
9Locomotive Tbilisi 2301241447:5840
10FC Gardabani30971442:4134
11FC Tbilisi 202530961546:5433
12Borjomi30841831:5828
13Bakhmaro Chokhatauri30691519:3327
14Zestafoni306111332:4926
15Matchakhela30661830:8624
16Guria30561930:7121