Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Zidgrad Idrija vs Tolmin - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Slovenia Slovenia

3. SNL - West
Sat, Oct 10, 2026
VS
01:30 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Zidgrad Idrija host Tolmin in the 3. SNL - West. Form suggests where the edge lies here. Zidgrad Idrija have averaged 1.28 scored and 1.86 conceded recently, against Tolmin's 2 scored and 1.1 conceded. Past meetings favor Zidgrad Idrija slightly — 1-1-0 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on May 9, 2026, ending 3:0. xG projections (1.44 - 1.63) back Tolmin to edge this. Away (2) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Zidgrad Idrija
20%
Draws
47%
Tolmin
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Tolmin

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Zidgrad Idrija haven't matched Tolmin's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Tolmin a 47% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
Zidgrad Idrija Clean Sheet 14%
Tolmin Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Zidgrad Idrija Tolmin
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 10 16
Draws 4 6
Losses 15 7
Goals Scored 1.28 2
Goals Conceded 1.86 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 9, 2026 3. SNL - West
Tolmin vs Zidgrad Idrija
3:0
Oct 25, 2025 3. SNL - West
Zidgrad Idrija vs Tolmin
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Zidgrad Idrija 11 / 100
Tolmin 74 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Zidgrad Idrija Tolmin

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Tolmin Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Zidgrad Idrija scored in 76% of their last 29 outings.

Tolmin's defensive record shows goals conceded in 72% of 29 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Zidgrad Idrija stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Zidgrad Idrija VS Tolmin
1.63 Goals Scored 2.38
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.25
63% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Zidgrad Idrija

(Home)
03 Oct
Zidgrad Idrija
2 : 4
Sencur
26 Sept
Zidgrad Idrija
1 : 3
Dob
20 Sept
Fama Vipava
2 : 3
Zidgrad Idrija
12 Sept
Zidgrad Idrija
2 : 1
Adria Miren
05 Sept
Litija
0 : 0
Zidgrad Idrija
Page 1 of 6

Tolmin

(Away)
03 Oct
Tolmin
2 : 0
Ljubljana Svoboda
27 Sept
Tolmin
5 : 1
Rudar Trbovlje
19 Sept
Tolmin
0 : 1
Izola
13 Sept
Ziri
2 : 4
Tolmin
05 Sept
Tolmin
2 : 2
Skofja Loka
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Izola 8 8 0 0 36:5 24
2 Dob 8 6 1 1 21:6 19
3 Zidgrad Idrija 8 5 1 2 13:11 16
4 Tolmin 8 4 3 1 18:10 15
5 Sencur 8 4 3 1 17:11 15
6 Litija 8 4 2 2 15:7 14
7 Skofja Loka 8 3 3 2 15:17 12
8 Rudar Trbovlje 8 3 1 4 11:18 10
9 Adria Miren 8 2 1 5 12:16 7
10 IB 1975 Ljubljana 8 2 1 5 8:14 7
11 Ziri 8 1 4 3 8:12 7
12 Fama Vipava 8 2 0 6 13:34 6
13 Sobec Lesce 8 0 3 5 6:16 3
14 Ljubljana Svoboda 8 0 1 7 5:21 1
Promotion - 2. SNL 2027/2028 (Main)