Palpites de Esportes
Bournemouth vs Aston Villa - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Inglaterra
EFL Cup Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth 
Resumo do Jogo
A one-off knockout match in the EFL Cup. Expect goals in this one — both sides have been finding the net. Bournemouth have averaged 2.07 scored and 1.11 conceded recently, against Aston Villa's 2.07 scored and 1.43 conceded. Past meetings favor Aston Villa slightly — 0-3-2 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on 7 de fev. de 2026, ending 1:1. The numbers (1.69 xG vs 1.94) point toward Bournemouth. The model tips Over 2.5 goals in this one.
Probabilidade de Vitória
Obtido a partir de 10.000 simulações considerando a vantagem de casa e forma recente
27%
33%
40%
Projeção de empate: 33% Favorito: Aston Villa
Confiança do Modelo
Pontuação indicadora agregada
70%
/ Média de Confiança
- Form's been kind to Aston Villa lately — more wins on the board than Bournemouth.
- 40% — that's where the model lands on Aston Villa taking it.
- Aston Villa arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
- Historical meetings favor Aston Villa, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
- Taxas de conversão altas sugerem jogo com muitos gols (Probabilidade Mais de 2.5: 78%).
Probabilidade de Gols
Estimativas para mercados de gols com base nos históricos de conversão de xG
Mais de 0.5 Gols 99%
Mais de 1.5 Gols 88%
Mais de 2.5 Gols 78%
Mais de 3.5 Gols 70%
Mais de 4.5 Gols 32%
Ambas Marcam (BTTS) 76.2%
Bournemouth Sem Sofrer Gols 10%
Aston Villa Sem Sofrer Gols 10%
Análise de Forma Recente
Médias por partida nos jogos históricos
| Métrica | Bournemouth | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| Partidas Jogadas | 28 | 30 |
| Vitórias | 12 | 15 |
| Empates | 12 | 3 |
| Derrotas | 4 | 12 |
| Gols Marcados | 2.07 | 2.07 |
| Gols Sofridos | 1.11 | 1.43 |
| Gols Esperados (xG) | 1.69 | 1.94 |
| Gols Esperados Sofridos (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Taxas históricas de sucesso de previsão nos principais mercados
7 de fev. de 2026 Premier League
Bournemouth vs Aston Villa
1:1
9 de nov. de 2025 Premier League
Aston Villa vs Bournemouth
4:0
10 de mai. de 2025 Premier League
Bournemouth vs Aston Villa
0:1
26 de out. de 2024 Premier League
Aston Villa vs Bournemouth
1:1
21 de abr. de 2024 Premier League
Aston Villa vs Bournemouth
3:1
Índice de Momentum SokaPicks
Índice atual de desempenho incluindo cansaço e oponente
Bournemouth 26 / 100
Aston Villa 38 / 100
Como é calculado: Fórmula ponderada baseada em forma recente (60%), margem de gols (20%), mando (10%) e desfalques (10%).
Índice de Capacidade de Ataque e Defesa
Bournemouth Aston Villa
Previsão do Mecanismo
Frequências simuladas de placar e principais mercados de apostas
Escolha Principal Aston Villa Win (2)
Escolha Secundária Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 4:6
Resultado BTTS Yes (GG)
Escolha Mais/Menos Over 2.5
Insights Inteligentes
Tendências históricas e padrões exclusivos detetados
Bournemouth's goal record stands at 86% scoring rate across 28 recent games.
Aston Villa's defensive record shows goals conceded in 80% of 30 matches.
Games between these two average 2.60 goals.
Recent resilience: Bournemouth stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.
Tendências de Gols
Bournemouth VS Aston Villa
2.13 Gols Marcados 2.75
1.13 Gols Sofridos 1.25
88% Mais de 1.5 88%
75% Mais de 2.5 88%
38% Mais de 3.5 75%
Recent Form & Match History
Bournemouth
(Home) 22 Oct
Bournemouth
3 : 0 AC Milan
18 Oct
Bournemouth
2 : 0 Sunderland
15 Oct
Bournemouth
3 : 0 Sturm Graz
10 Oct
Chelsea
5 : 1 Bournemouth
20 Sept
Bournemouth
0 : 1 Liverpool
Page 1 of 6
22 Oct
Bournemouth
3 : 0 AC Milan
18 Oct
Bournemouth
2 : 0 Sunderland
15 Oct
Bournemouth
3 : 0 Sturm Graz
20 Sept
Bournemouth
0 : 1 Liverpool
12 Sept
Bournemouth
2 : 2 Brentford
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Aston Villa
(Away) 21 Oct
Aston Villa
3 : 1 Viking
17 Oct
Newcastle Utd
0 : 1 Aston Villa
14 Oct
Aston Villa
6 : 0 Fenerbahce
10 Oct
Aston Villa
2 : 2 Brentford
02 Oct
Sevilla
1 : 3 Aston Villa
Page 1 of 6
17 Oct
Newcastle Utd
0 : 1 Aston Villa
02 Oct
Sevilla
1 : 3 Aston Villa
19 Sept
Tottenham
2 : 3 Aston Villa
16 Sept
Coventry
1 : 3 Aston Villa
08 Sept
Club Brugge
2 : 3 Aston Villa
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Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/64-finals
Fleetwood Town 1
Chesterfield 0
Salford 1
Shrewsbury 2
Burton 1
Blackburn 2
Mansfield 0
Sheffield Utd 3
Ipswich -
TBD -
Leicester 1
Northampton 0
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Arsenal -
Manchester City -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Cardiff 3
Swindon 2
Norwich 4
Milton Keynes Dons 1
Manchester United -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Brighton -
Preston 2
Huddersfield 1
TBD -
Everton -
Sheffield Wed 1
Bolton 0
Wolves 3
Port Vale 0
Cambridge Utd 2
Barnet 1
QPR 1
Millwall 2
Newcastle Utd -
TBD -
Rotherham 1
West Brom 4
Sunderland -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Stoke City 2
Oldham 0
TBD -
Hull City -
Wycombe 1
Stevenage 2
Bromley 1
Reading 2
Swansea 0
Birmingham 1
TBD -
Brentford -
Liverpool -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Tottenham -
TBD -
Cheltenham 1
Charlton 3
Chelsea -
TBD -
Gillingham 0
Luton 3
Nottingham -
TBD -
TBD -
Leeds -
Bristol City 0
Walsall 1
Leyton Orient 2
Oxford Utd 0
Bradford City 2
Rochdale 0
Burnley 2
Notts County 1
Watford 1
Crawley Town 0
Bristol Rovers 0
Peterborough 1
Barnsley 2
Wigan 1
Crewe 2
Accrington 1
Colchester 0
Southampton 2
West Ham 3
Portsmouth 1
Fulham -
TBD -
AFC Wimbledon 2
Newport 1
Crystal Palace -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Stockport County 1
Doncaster 2
Middlesbrough 1
Wrexham 0
Bournemouth -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Grimsby 1
Blackpool 3
Derby 1
Lincoln City 2
Plymouth 2
Exeter 0
TBD -
Coventry -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Aston Villa -
1/32-finals
Fleetwood Town 4
Shrewsbury 0
Blackburn 1
Sheffield Utd 2
Ipswich 3
Leicester 1
TBD -
Arsenal -
Manchester City -
TBD -
Cardiff 1
Norwich 2
Manchester United -
TBD -
TBD -
Brighton -
Preston 0
Everton 4
Sheffield Wed 0
Wolves 2
Cambridge Utd 0
Millwall 1
Newcastle Utd 3
West Brom 2
Sunderland -
TBD -
Stoke City 1
Hull City 2
Stevenage 0
Reading 3
Birmingham 1
Brentford 6
Liverpool -
TBD -
Tottenham 5
Charlton 1
Chelsea 2
Luton 0
Nottingham 0
Leeds 2
Walsall 0
Leyton Orient 1
Bradford City 1
Burnley 0
Watford 1
Peterborough 5
Barnsley 3
Crewe 2
Southampton 1
West Ham 4
Fulham 3
AFC Wimbledon 0
Crystal Palace -
TBD -
Doncaster 1
Middlesbrough 3
Bournemouth -
TBD -
Blackpool 1
Lincoln City 4
Plymouth 2
Coventry 4
TBD -
Aston Villa -
1/16-finals
Fleetwood Town 1
Sheffield Utd 0
Ipswich 2
Arsenal 4
Manchester City 5
Norwich 0
Manchester United 2
Brighton 3
Everton 1
Wolves 0
Millwall 0
Newcastle Utd 1
Sunderland 1
Hull City 0
Reading 1
Brentford 2
Liverpool 3
Tottenham 1
Chelsea 6
Leeds 3
Leyton Orient 1
Bradford City 3
Peterborough 4
Barnsley 3
West Ham 2
Fulham 3
Crystal Palace 3
Middlesbrough 0
Bournemouth 4
Lincoln City 0
Coventry 1
Aston Villa 3
1/8-finals
Fleetwood Town -
Arsenal -
Manchester City -
Brighton -
Everton -
Newcastle Utd -
Sunderland -
Brentford -
Liverpool -
Chelsea -
Bradford City -
Peterborough -
Fulham -
Crystal Palace -
Bournemouth -
Aston Villa -
Quarter-finals
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Semi-finals
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Final
TBD -
TBD -
