Palpites de Esportes
Manchester City vs Brighton - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Inglaterra
EFL Cup Etihad Stadium, Manchester 
Resumo do Jogo
A one-off knockout match in the EFL Cup. Neither defense has been convincing lately, which should mean goals. Brighton have shipped 0.88 goals a game lately, while Manchester City have conceded 1.04 and scored 2.39. Past meetings favor Brighton slightly — 1-2-2 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on 7 de jan. de 2026, ending 1:1. Model xG sits at 1.56 vs 2.00, favoring Manchester City. Over 2.5 looks the sharpest market angle here.
Probabilidade de Vitória
Obtido a partir de 10.000 simulações considerando a vantagem de casa e forma recente
27%
33%
40%
Projeção de empate: 33% Favorito: Brighton
Confiança do Modelo
Pontuação indicadora agregada
70%
/ Média de Confiança
- Manchester City carry the better recent record into this one.
- Win probability leans Brighton's way, sitting at 40%.
- Manchester City have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Taxas de conversão altas sugerem jogo com muitos gols (Probabilidade Mais de 2.5: 78%).
Probabilidade de Gols
Estimativas para mercados de gols com base nos históricos de conversão de xG
Mais de 0.5 Gols 92%
Mais de 1.5 Gols 82%
Mais de 2.5 Gols 78%
Mais de 3.5 Gols 50%
Mais de 4.5 Gols 23%
Ambas Marcam (BTTS) 69.8%
Manchester City Sem Sofrer Gols 10%
Brighton Sem Sofrer Gols 10%
Análise de Forma Recente
Médias por partida nos jogos históricos
| Métrica | Manchester City | Brighton |
|---|---|---|
| Partidas Jogadas | 28 | 25 |
| Vitórias | 21 | 17 |
| Empates | 2 | 3 |
| Derrotas | 5 | 5 |
| Gols Marcados | 2.39 | 2.32 |
| Gols Sofridos | 1.04 | 0.88 |
| Gols Esperados (xG) | 1.56 | 2.00 |
| Gols Esperados Sofridos (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Taxas históricas de sucesso de previsão nos principais mercados
7 de jan. de 2026 Premier League
Manchester City vs Brighton
1:1
31 de ago. de 2025 Premier League
Brighton vs Manchester City
2:1
15 de mar. de 2025 Premier League
Manchester City vs Brighton
2:2
9 de nov. de 2024 Premier League
Brighton vs Manchester City
2:1
25 de abr. de 2024 Premier League
Brighton vs Manchester City
0:4
Índice de Momentum SokaPicks
Índice atual de desempenho incluindo cansaço e oponente
Manchester City 26 / 100
Brighton 38 / 100
Como é calculado: Fórmula ponderada baseada em forma recente (60%), margem de gols (20%), mando (10%) e desfalques (10%).
Índice de Capacidade de Ataque e Defesa
Manchester City Brighton
Previsão do Mecanismo
Frequências simuladas de placar e principais mercados de apostas
Escolha Principal Brighton Win (2)
Escolha Secundária Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
Resultado BTTS Yes (GG)
Escolha Mais/Menos Over 2.5
Insights Inteligentes
Tendências históricas e padrões exclusivos detetados
Manchester City's goal record stands at 96% scoring rate across 28 recent games.
Games between these two average 3.20 goals.
Manchester City has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Defensive concern: Brighton conceded in 44% of 25 recent games.
Tendências de Gols
Manchester City VS Brighton
2.75 Gols Marcados 2.88
1.13 Gols Sofridos 0.38
75% Mais de 1.5 88%
63% Mais de 2.5 63%
50% Mais de 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Manchester City
(Home) 20 Oct
Manchester City
5 : 1 AEK
17 Oct
Manchester City
3 : 2 Ipswich
14 Oct
Manchester City
2 : 4 PSG
11 Oct
Liverpool
0 : 3 Manchester City
20 Sept
Manchester City
5 : 3 Sunderland
Page 1 of 6
20 Oct
Manchester City
5 : 1 AEK
17 Oct
Manchester City
3 : 2 Ipswich
14 Oct
Manchester City
2 : 4 PSG
20 Sept
Manchester City
5 : 3 Sunderland
17 Sept
Manchester City
5 : 0 Norwich
Page 1 of 4
Brighton
(Away) 18 Oct
Brighton
5 : 0 Crystal Palace
15 Oct
Brighton
4 : 0 FK Kauno Zalgiris
10 Oct
Sunderland
0 : 2 Brighton
19 Sept
Brighton
3 : 0 Arsenal
16 Sept
Manchester United
2 : 3 Brighton
Page 1 of 5
10 Oct
Sunderland
0 : 2 Brighton
16 Sept
Manchester United
2 : 3 Brighton
13 Sept
Coventry
0 : 5 Brighton
30 Aug
Chelsea
4 : 3 Brighton
20 Aug
Tromso
0 : 0 Brighton
Page 1 of 2
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/64-finals
Fleetwood Town 1
Chesterfield 0
Salford 1
Shrewsbury 2
Burton 1
Blackburn 2
Mansfield 0
Sheffield Utd 3
Ipswich -
TBD -
Leicester 1
Northampton 0
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Arsenal -
Manchester City -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Cardiff 3
Swindon 2
Norwich 4
Milton Keynes Dons 1
Manchester United -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Brighton -
Preston 2
Huddersfield 1
TBD -
Everton -
Sheffield Wed 1
Bolton 0
Wolves 3
Port Vale 0
Cambridge Utd 2
Barnet 1
QPR 1
Millwall 2
Newcastle Utd -
TBD -
Rotherham 1
West Brom 4
Sunderland -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Stoke City 2
Oldham 0
TBD -
Hull City -
Wycombe 1
Stevenage 2
Bromley 1
Reading 2
Swansea 0
Birmingham 1
TBD -
Brentford -
Liverpool -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Tottenham -
TBD -
Cheltenham 1
Charlton 3
Chelsea -
TBD -
Gillingham 0
Luton 3
Nottingham -
TBD -
TBD -
Leeds -
Bristol City 0
Walsall 1
Leyton Orient 2
Oxford Utd 0
Bradford City 2
Rochdale 0
Burnley 2
Notts County 1
Watford 1
Crawley Town 0
Bristol Rovers 0
Peterborough 1
Barnsley 2
Wigan 1
Crewe 2
Accrington 1
Colchester 0
Southampton 2
West Ham 3
Portsmouth 1
Fulham -
TBD -
AFC Wimbledon 2
Newport 1
Crystal Palace -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Stockport County 1
Doncaster 2
Middlesbrough 1
Wrexham 0
Bournemouth -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Grimsby 1
Blackpool 3
Derby 1
Lincoln City 2
Plymouth 2
Exeter 0
TBD -
Coventry -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Aston Villa -
1/32-finals
Fleetwood Town 4
Shrewsbury 0
Blackburn 1
Sheffield Utd 2
Ipswich 3
Leicester 1
TBD -
Arsenal -
Manchester City -
TBD -
Cardiff 1
Norwich 2
Manchester United -
TBD -
TBD -
Brighton -
Preston 0
Everton 4
Sheffield Wed 0
Wolves 2
Cambridge Utd 0
Millwall 1
Newcastle Utd 3
West Brom 2
Sunderland -
TBD -
Stoke City 1
Hull City 2
Stevenage 0
Reading 3
Birmingham 1
Brentford 6
Liverpool -
TBD -
Tottenham 5
Charlton 1
Chelsea 2
Luton 0
Nottingham 0
Leeds 2
Walsall 0
Leyton Orient 1
Bradford City 1
Burnley 0
Watford 1
Peterborough 5
Barnsley 3
Crewe 2
Southampton 1
West Ham 4
Fulham 3
AFC Wimbledon 0
Crystal Palace -
TBD -
Doncaster 1
Middlesbrough 3
Bournemouth -
TBD -
Blackpool 1
Lincoln City 4
Plymouth 2
Coventry 4
TBD -
Aston Villa -
1/16-finals
Fleetwood Town 1
Sheffield Utd 0
Ipswich 2
Arsenal 4
Manchester City 5
Norwich 0
Manchester United 2
Brighton 3
Everton 1
Wolves 0
Millwall 0
Newcastle Utd 1
Sunderland 1
Hull City 0
Reading 1
Brentford 2
Liverpool 3
Tottenham 1
Chelsea 6
Leeds 3
Leyton Orient 1
Bradford City 3
Peterborough 4
Barnsley 3
West Ham 2
Fulham 3
Crystal Palace 3
Middlesbrough 0
Bournemouth 4
Lincoln City 0
Coventry 1
Aston Villa 3
1/8-finals
Fleetwood Town -
Arsenal -
Manchester City -
Brighton -
Everton -
Newcastle Utd -
Sunderland -
Brentford -
Liverpool -
Chelsea -
Bradford City -
Peterborough -
Fulham -
Crystal Palace -
Bournemouth -
Aston Villa -
Quarter-finals
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Semi-finals
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Final
TBD -
TBD -
