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1º Dezembro vs Vitoria Setubal - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group D Campo Conde de Sucena, Sintra
Sun, Oct 25, 2026
VS
03:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

1º Dezembro host Vitoria Setubal in the Campeonato de Portugal - Group D. Recent form is the clearest guide to this one. 1º Dezembro have averaged 0.93 scored and 1.52 conceded recently, against Vitoria Setubal's 1.66 scored and 1.09 conceded. These two haven't met recently, so form does most of the talking. xG projections (1.44 - 1.35) back Vitoria Setubal to edge this. The model's pick is Away (2) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
1º Dezembro
30%
Draws
41%
Vitoria Setubal
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Vitoria Setubal

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

41% / Low Confidence
  • Vitoria Setubal have won more games recently than 1º Dezembro.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • Regular Campeonato de Portugal - Group D form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
1º Dezembro Clean Sheet 18%
Vitoria Setubal Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric 1º Dezembro Vitoria Setubal
Matches Played 29 32
Wins 6 18
Draws 8 5
Losses 15 9
Goals Scored 0.93 1.66
Goals Conceded 1.52 1.09
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 1.35
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

1º Dezembro 32 / 100
Vitoria Setubal 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
1º Dezembro Vitoria Setubal

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Vitoria Setubal Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: 1º Dezembro scored in 69% of their last 29 outings.

Solid form: 1º Dezembro remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Vitoria Setubal let in goals in 56% of their last 32 matches.

Vitoria Setubal's recent record shows 2 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

1º Dezembro VS Vitoria Setubal
1.38 Goals Scored 1.33
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.5
75% Over 1.5 67%
50% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

1º Dezembro

(Home)
13 Sept
1º Dezembro
1 : 1
Amora
06 Sept
Serpa
1 : 1
1º Dezembro
30 Aug
1º Dezembro
0 : 1
Real SC
16 Aug
Imortal
5 : 0
1º Dezembro
02 May
1º Dezembro
2 : 1
Caldas SC
Page 1 of 6

Vitoria Setubal

(Away)
20 Sept
Alcains
0 : 2
Vitoria Setubal
13 Sept
Vitoria Setubal
2 : 2
Juv. Evora
06 Sept
Lajense
0 : 1
Vitoria Setubal
23 Aug
Vitoria Setubal
1 : 3
Amora
16 Aug
Serpa
4 : 2
Vitoria Setubal
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sintrense 4 3 1 0 11:3 10
2 Imortal 4 2 1 1 7:3 7
3 Amora 4 2 1 1 5:3 7
4 Serpa 4 1 3 0 6:4 6
5 Real SC 4 1 3 0 8:7 6
6 Juv. Evora 4 1 2 1 6:7 5
7 Lagoa 4 1 2 1 3:3 5
8 GD Alcochetense 4 1 2 1 7:6 5
9 Vitoria Setubal 4 1 1 2 6:9 4
10 Portel 4 0 4 0 6:6 4
11 Lajense 4 1 1 2 7:7 4
12 1º Dezembro 3 0 2 1 2:7 2
13 Aljustrelense 4 0 2 2 2:8 2
14 Santa Clara B 3 0 1 2 3:6 1
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A (Promotion Group)
Relegation - Campeonato de Portugal - Relegation Group 2026/2027 (Main)