Sport Picks

Stadium Background

12 de Octubre vs 3 de Febrero

Paraguay Paraguay

Division Intermedia 2023 Estadio Luis Alberto Salinas Tanasio
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

12 de Octubre play 3 de Febrero in the Division Intermedia 2023. It looks like a close match. Recently, 12 de Octubre averaged 0.83 goals scored and 1.9 conceded. 3 de Febrero averaged 1.03 goals scored and 1.11 conceded. In past meetings, 12 de Octubre won 3, 3 de Febrero won 2, and they drew 0. Their last match on Oct 2, 2023 ended 1:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.04 for 12 de Octubre and 0.94 for 3 de Febrero. This points to a 3 de Febrero double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
12 de Octubre
19%
Draws
52%
3 de Febrero
Draw rate projection: 19% Favored: 3 de Febrero

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

80% / High Confidence
  • 12 de Octubre picked up more points recently compared to 3 de Febrero.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.04 vs 0.94 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 45%
Over 3.5 Goals 27%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 44%
12 de Octubre Clean Sheet 24%
3 de Febrero Clean Sheet 14%
First Half Goal 68%
Second Half Goal 71%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric 12 de Octubre 3 de Febrero
Matches Played 30 36
Wins 4 12
Draws 7 11
Losses 19 13
Goals Scored 0.83 1.03
Goals Conceded 1.9 1.11
Expected Goals (xG) 1.33 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 2, 2023 Division Intermedia
12 de Octubre vs 3 de Febrero
1:2
Jun 26, 2023 Division Intermedia
3 de Febrero vs 12 de Octubre
3:0
Sep 16, 2021 Copa Paraguay
3 de Febrero vs 12 de Octubre
0:1
Aug 24, 2019 Division Intermedia
3 de Febrero vs 12 de Octubre
0:2
May 12, 2019 Division Intermedia
12 de Octubre vs 3 de Febrero
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

12 de Octubre Compare

Top Goalscorer Vera R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.02
Avg xA / game 0.67

3 de Febrero Compare

Top Goalscorer Canete A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Fernandez M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

12 de Octubre 31 / 100
3 de Febrero 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
12 de Octubre 3 de Febrero

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: 3 de Febrero or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +38%
4.76
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +15.2%
2.56
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

12 de Octubre attacking → ← attacking 3 de Febrero

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

12 de Octubre scored in 53% of their last 30 games.

3 de Febrero let in goals in 69% of their last 36 matches.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

12 de Octubre went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

3 de Febrero lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

19 Points in last 5 47
1.33 Goals expected (xG) 0.88
1.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.75

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Sol de America30214546:2567
22 de Mayo30169546:2357
3Independiente FBC30149753:3551
4Recoleta30156959:4551
5Fernando de la Mora301461040:3148
6Rubio Nu301281042:4444
7Deportivo Santani301281041:4344
8Sportivo Carapegua301110943:3143
9Pastoreo301110937:3143
10San Lorenzo301191035:2742
113 de Febrero301161339:4239
12Colegiales30951629:4432
13Martin Ledesma30871530:4131
1424 de Setiembre30781538:5229
15Atyra30751832:5826
1612 de Octubre30282024:6214