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22 de Julio vs EL Nacional - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Ecuador Ecuador

Serie B
Our Tip

Match Events

37' Event
39' Event
42' Event

AI Match Summary

The Serie B game between 22 de Julio and EL Nacional finished 2-5, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward EL Nacional.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

12%
22 de Julio
15%
Draws
73%
EL Nacional
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: EL Nacional

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and EL Nacional come out ahead of 22 de Julio on wins alone.
  • 73% — that's where the model lands on EL Nacional taking it.
  • Regular Serie B form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and EL Nacional have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.2%
22 de Julio Clean Sheet 12%
EL Nacional Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric 22 de Julio EL Nacional
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 3 5
Draws 4 6
Losses 22 18
Goals Scored 0.59 1.03
Goals Conceded 2.07 1.66
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 7, 2026 Serie B
22 de Julio vs EL Nacional
2:5
Sep 12, 2026 Serie B
EL Nacional vs 22 de Julio
3:0
Jul 31, 2026 Serie B
22 de Julio vs EL Nacional
1:3
May 9, 2026 Serie B
EL Nacional vs 22 de Julio
1:1
Jul 11, 2025 Copa Ecuador
22 de Julio vs EL Nacional
0:3

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

22 de Julio 10 / 100
EL Nacional 84 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
22 de Julio EL Nacional

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick EL Nacional Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

EL Nacional has conceded goals in 86% of their last 29 outings.

Games between these two average 3.80 goals.

Difficult form: EL Nacional registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

22 de Julio scored in 38% of their last 29 games.

Scoring Trends

22 de Julio VS EL Nacional
0.38 Goals Scored 0.63
2.88 Goals Conceded 1.38
88% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

22 de Julio

(Home)
07 Oct
22 de Julio
2 : 5
EL Nacional
03 Oct
Gualaceo
4 : 2
22 de Julio
24 Sept
LDU Portoviejo
2 : 2
22 de Julio
17 Sept
22 de Julio
1 : 7
Cumbaya
12 Sept
EL Nacional
3 : 0
22 de Julio
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EL Nacional

(Away)
07 Oct
22 de Julio
2 : 5
EL Nacional
03 Oct
LDU Portoviejo
3 : 2
EL Nacional
26 Sept
EL Nacional
0 : 3
Cumbaya
18 Sept
Dep. Santo Domingo
1 : 0
EL Nacional
12 Sept
EL Nacional
3 : 0
22 de Julio
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