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3 de Febrero vs Independiente FBC

Paraguay Paraguay

Division Intermedia 2024
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

3 de Febrero play Independiente FBC in the Division Intermedia 2024. It looks like a close match. Recently, 3 de Febrero averaged 0.8 goals scored and 1.23 conceded. Independiente FBC averaged 1.31 goals scored and 1.36 conceded. In past meetings, 3 de Febrero won 1, Independiente FBC won 2, and they drew 2. Their last match on Sep 28, 2024 ended 2:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.17 for 3 de Febrero and 1.11 for Independiente FBC. This points to a Independiente FBC double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
3 de Febrero
31%
Draws
39%
Independiente FBC
Draw rate projection: 31% Favored: Independiente FBC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / Medium Confidence
  • 3 de Febrero picked up more points recently compared to Independiente FBC.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.17 vs 1.11 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 79%
Over 2.5 Goals 39%
Over 3.5 Goals 23%
Over 4.5 Goals 12%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 48%
3 de Febrero Clean Sheet 21%
Independiente FBC Clean Sheet 12%
First Half Goal 71%
Second Half Goal 75%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric 3 de Febrero Independiente FBC
Matches Played 30 36
Wins 7 13
Draws 10 8
Losses 13 15
Goals Scored 0.8 1.31
Goals Conceded 1.23 1.36

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 28, 2024 Division Intermedia
Independiente FBC vs 3 de Febrero
2:1
Jun 25, 2024 Division Intermedia
3 de Febrero vs Independiente FBC
1:1
Aug 29, 2023 Division Intermedia
Independiente FBC vs 3 de Febrero
1:1
May 22, 2023 Division Intermedia
3 de Febrero vs Independiente FBC
2:0
Sep 23, 2022 Division Intermedia
Independiente FBC vs 3 de Febrero
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

3 de Febrero Compare

Top Goalscorer Zarate A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0
Avg xA / game 0

Independiente FBC Compare

Top Goalscorer Alfonso A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

3 de Febrero 31 / 100
Independiente FBC 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
3 de Febrero Independiente FBC

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Independiente FBC or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +36.5%
4.55
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +18.2%
3.03
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

3 de Febrero attacking → ← attacking Independiente FBC

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

3 de Febrero scored in 53% of their last 30 games.

Independiente FBC let in goals in 69% of their last 36 matches.

Games between these two average 2.20 goals.

3 de Febrero went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Independiente FBC lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

31 Points in last 5 47
0.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.13
0.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.13

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Recoleta30198357:2065
2Atletico Tembetary30195646:2462
3Sportivo Carapegua30177645:2758
4San Lorenzo301210835:3146
5Resistencia301361135:3545
6Encarnacion FC301281043:3944
7Deportivo Santani301191035:3342
8Rubio Nu301191033:3542
9Guairena FC301011930:2538
1012 de Junio301081235:3538
11Independiente FBC301081233:3738
12Martin Ledesma308121028:3536
13Fernando de la Mora308111131:3335
143 de Febrero306111324:3729
15Pastoreo30651928:5023
16Colegiales30242428:7010