Sport Picks

Stadium Background

A. Lima vs AD Tarma

Peru Peru

Liga 1 Estadio Alejandro Villanueva, Lima
Sat, Sep 19, 2026
VS
01:00 AM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

A. Lima host AD Tarma in the Liga 1. This one's hard to separate. AD Tarma have shipped 1.46 goals a game lately, while A. Lima have conceded 0.83 and scored 1.43. Past meetings favor A. Lima slightly — 2-2-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Apr 14, 2026, ending 0:1. Model xG sits at 1.69 vs 0.88, favoring A. Lima. AI prediction: Home (1) Win — correct score tipped at 3-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
A. Lima
30%
Draws
31%
AD Tarma
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: A. Lima

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to A. Lima lately — more wins on the board than AD Tarma.
  • Win probability leans A. Lima's way, sitting at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%
A. Lima Clean Sheet 68%
AD Tarma Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric A. Lima AD Tarma
Matches Played 30 28
Wins 14 7
Draws 10 8
Losses 6 13
Goals Scored 1.43 1.21
Goals Conceded 0.83 1.46
Expected Goals (xG) 1.69 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 14, 2026 Liga 1
AD Tarma vs A. Lima
0:1
Aug 17, 2025 Liga 1
A. Lima vs AD Tarma
3:1
Mar 29, 2025 Liga 1
AD Tarma vs A. Lima
3:0
Aug 11, 2024 Liga 1
A. Lima vs AD Tarma
0:0
Mar 1, 2024 Liga 1
AD Tarma vs A. Lima
2:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

A. Lima 50 / 100
AD Tarma 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
A. Lima AD Tarma

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick A. Lima Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

A. Lima found the back of the net in 83% of recent matches (30 games).

AD Tarma has conceded goals in 75% of their last 28 outings.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Solid form: A. Lima remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

A. Lima VS AD Tarma
1.38 Goals Scored 0.75
1 Goals Conceded 2
75% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

A. Lima

(Home)
13 Sept
A. Lima
1 : 2
Universitario de Deportes
06 Sept
Juan Pablo II
1 : 1
A. Lima
30 Aug
A. Lima
0 : 1
Deportivo Garcilaso
23 Aug
FBC Melgar
1 : 1
A. Lima
16 Aug
A. Lima
1 : 0
Cajamarca
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AD Tarma

(Away)
06 Sept
FBC Melgar
3 : 0
AD Tarma
30 Aug
AD Tarma
1 : 3
Sport Huancayo
27 Aug
AD Tarma
2 : 0
Moquegua
22 Aug
Juan Pablo II
5 : 1
AD Tarma
15 Aug
AD Tarma
1 : 1
Alianza Atl.
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Universitario de Deportes 9 6 2 1 19:12 20
2 Deportivo Garcilaso 9 6 1 2 14:6 19
3 FBC Melgar 9 5 2 2 15:8 17
4 Sport Boys 9 5 2 2 13:6 17
5 Sporting Cristal 9 5 1 3 17:9 16
6 Atletico Grau 9 5 1 3 13:10 16
7 Alianza Atl. 9 5 1 3 18:16 16
8 Sport Huancayo 9 5 1 3 13:11 16
9 Cusco 9 5 0 4 17:13 15
10 Juan Pablo II 9 4 3 2 16:12 15
11 A. Lima 9 3 4 2 12:10 13
12 FC Cajamarca 9 3 1 5 17:22 10
13 Comerciantes Unidos 9 2 3 4 16:16 9
14 Cienciano 8 2 1 5 10:15 7
15 Moquegua 9 1 4 4 7:13 7
16 Los Chankas 9 2 1 6 10:23 7
17 Cajamarca 9 0 2 7 9:21 2
18 AD Tarma 8 0 2 6 5:18 2
Promotion - Liga 1 (Play Offs)