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AA Carapebus vs Nova Cidade

Brazil Brazil

Carioca B1 2025
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Match Events

49' Event
Daniel Bolt
74' Event
Goncalves I.

AI Match Summary

The Carioca B1 2025 game between AA Carapebus and Nova Cidade finished 0-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Nova Cidade.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

13%
AA Carapebus
17%
Draws
70%
Nova Cidade
Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: Nova Cidade

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

88% / Very High Confidence
  • AA Carapebus have managed 0.5 goals a game lately — Nova Cidade are scoring more at 0.63.
  • Win probability leans Nova Cidade's way, sitting at 70%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 66.2%
AA Carapebus Clean Sheet 20%
Nova Cidade Clean Sheet 20%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric AA Carapebus Nova Cidade
Matches Played 24 30
Wins 9 9
Draws 5 11
Losses 10 10
Goals Scored 0.5 0.63
Goals Conceded 1.25 0.5
Expected Goals (xG) 0.50 0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 0.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 27, 2025 Carioca B1
AA Carapebus vs Nova Cidade
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

AA Carapebus Compare

Avg xG / game 0.38
Avg xA / game 0.25

Nova Cidade Compare

Top Goalscorer Daniel Bolt
1 Goals
Assists Leader Goncalves I.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.57
Avg xA / game 0.35

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

AA Carapebus 16 / 100
Nova Cidade 67 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
AA Carapebus Nova Cidade

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick NOV Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Nova Cidade let in goals in 63% of their last 30 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: AA Carapebus stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

AA Carapebus's goal record stands at 58% scoring rate across 24 recent games.

Scoring Trends

AA Carapebus VS Nova Cidade
0.5 Goals Scored 0.63
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.5
63% Over 1.5 25%
25% Over 2.5 13%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

AA Carapebus

(Home)
08 Nov
AA Carapebus
0 : 2
Duque de Caxias
05 Nov
AA Carapebus
1 : 1
Bonsucesso
01 Nov
Campo Grande
0 : 1
AA Carapebus
25 Oct
Artsul
3 : 1
AA Carapebus
18 Oct
AA Carapebus
0 : 0
Serrano FC
Page 1 of 5

Nova Cidade

(Away)
08 Nov
Nova Cidade
1 : 0
Friburguense
05 Nov
Nova Cidade
1 : 0
Campo Grande
01 Nov
Duque de Caxias
2 : 2
Nova Cidade
25 Oct
Bonsucesso
1 : 0
Nova Cidade
18 Oct
Nova Cidade
0 : 0
Artsul
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Bonsucesso1164114:722
2Sao Cristovao1154214:819
3Serrano FC1153314:1118
4Duque de Caxias1153310:918
5Niteroiense1144316:1416
6Goncalense1151511:916
7Nova Cidade114439:916
8Campo Grande113629:815
9Artsul1134411:1013
10AA Carapebus113356:1312
11Paduano EC1131712:1810
12Friburguense111193:134
Promotion - Carioca B1 2025 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Carioca B2 2025 (Main)